THE ILLINOIZE...Is Darren Bailey leading the GOP primary?...Abortion...Lightfoot breaks from police reform law...John Porter
June 7, 2022
Good morning, Illinois.
The primary election is three weeks from today. That’s 21 days, if you’re counting. It’s 154 days to the general election and 216 days until the winner of the gubernatorial election takes the oath of office. It’s been 496 days since the Governor’s official office has responded to one of our requests and 113 days since the Richard Irvin campaign last responded to us.
I’m going to dig through the latest TV ad buys today and have more for subscribers on that tomorrow morning. If you aren’t yet a paid subscriber, I hope you’ll join us. It’s just $99 per year or $9.99 per month. Just click below and be part of the cool kids crew.
And my email is always open for your comments and questions. Drop me a note anytime at patrick@theillinoize.com.
Let’s get to it.
IS BAILEY WINNING?
About ten days ago, the Richard Irvin campaign released a poll showing the Aurora Mayor up six points on Sen. Darren Bailey (R-Xenia) in the race for the GOP nomination for governor.
Yesterday, though, radio host Dan Proft, who is running a PAC supporting Bailey and opposing Irvin, funded by billionaire Richard Uihlein, said he had a new poll for his organization showing Bailey leading Irvin by seven points.
Proft said the poll was conducted by Republican firm Fabrizio & Lee, the pollster for former President Donald Trump’s two presidential campaigns. His poll showed Bailey at 27%, Irvin at 20%, venture capitalist Jesse Sullivan at 13%, and businessman Gary Rabine at 12%. Results for other candidates and undecided voters were not released.
We requested a copy of the poll from Proft, who did not respond.
Proft said on his radio show a Fabrizio poll a “few weeks ago” generally matched those released by the Irvin campaign in late May. If correct, it shows a 13-point turnaround in favor of Bailey, who has been boosted by $9 million dollars from Uihlein, as well as attacks on Irvin from Governor JB Pritzker and the Democratic Governor’s Association.
“I think what’s happening, and the underlying numbers bear this out, is that if you can’t close the deal with the first $20 million, if you’re Irvin, and the landscape was basically yours and yours alone up until about mid-April, then you may find yourself in trouble if resources are devoted to educating the electorate about who you actually are,” Proft said on his radio show Monday. “Irvin has now gone upside down, meaning his unfavorables are higher than his favorables. The documenting of Irvin’s words and deeds, all I’ve done is put his words in context.”
We’re hearing Bailey’s internal polling also shows him leading Irvin, though a campaign representative did not comment on their internal polls.
Sources close to the Irvin campaign told The Illinoize Monday they believed the race had tightened, but believed Irvin is still leading.
POLL: ABORTION SUPPORT IN ILLINOIS ISN’T OVERWHELMING
Speaking of polling, GOP firm Ogden & Fry released a detailed poll yesterday laying out multiple questions on abortion.
Here are a few highlights:
40% of respondents say they are “pro-choice with some restrictions” (like opposition to partial birth or late term abortions).
14% are 100% pro-life and 24% are pro-life with exceptions (rape, incest, life of the mother, etc.)
22% are completely pro-choice, who would allow abortion until the moment of birth, including partial birth abortions)
46% believe abortion law is a federal issue and should be covered by a federal law. 39% say it’s a state issue.
40% of respondents say abortion laws should be decided through direct citizen referenda, 35% want to leave it to the legislative branch (as they should) and 10% believe its an issue for the courts.
56% of respondents oppose taxpayer funding for elective abortions.
42% support the Parental Notification of Abortion. 35% support PNA with an ability for a a minor to get a judge’s approval to bypass the requirement. 23% say parental notification should not be required.
A plurality, 26% of respondents, said abortions should not be allowed after viability outside the womb, which is around 20 weeks. 22% said abortion should not be limited in any way.
52% of respondents say they would be less likely to support a candidate who believes elective abortions should be legal until the moment of birth. 28% were more likely.
Respondents were asked to rank the six most important issues to them. Abortion finished last. Inflation, public safety/crime, education, taxes, and corruption were all ahead of abortion.
One Republican lawmaker texted me last night that “Democrats are way overplaying this issue,” noting that Governor JB Pritzker has made abortion rights a centerpiece of his public messaging in recent weeks.
One Democratic consultant said she was “shocked” abortion was low on the list, considering the media storm over a leaked preliminary decision which would overturn Roe vs. Wade.
Other notes from the O&F poll:
41% of respondents are Democrats, 31% Republican, and 24% Independent, which is a relatively accurate snapshot of the state.
President Biden’s approval rating is 50% with a disapproval rate of 48%. Yikes.
Governor JB Pritzker has a 51% approval rating, with 46% disapproving of his job performance. 51 isn’t bad for an incumbent Governor, but 46% disapproval isn’t a great place to be five months out from election day.
LIGHTFOOT CONTRADICTS POLICE REFORM LAW
Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot became the highest profile Democrat to contradict a major portion of the state’s new criminal justice reform law.
Amid a spate of highly publicized shootings, including of police officer Fernanda Ballesteros, who was shot trying to pull over a driver in the Englewood neighborhood Sunday, Lightfoot said people arrested and charged with violent crimes should not be granted bail.
More from the Chicago Tribune’s Gregory Pratt:
Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot escalated her ongoing feud with the Cook County criminal courts system on Monday when she said judges shouldn’t allow people charged with violent crimes out on bail because they are guilty if they have been charged.
“We shouldn’t be locking up nonviolent individuals just because they can’t afford to pay bail. But, given the exacting standards that the state’s attorney has for charging a case, which is proof beyond a reasonable doubt, when those charges are brought, these people are guilty,” Lightfoot said. “Of course they’re entitled to a presumption of innocence. Of course they’re entitled to their day in court. But residents in our community are also entitled to safety from dangerous people, so we need to keep pressing the criminal courts to lock up violent dangerous people and not put them out on bail or electronic monitoring back into the very same communities where brave souls are mustering the courage to come forward and say, ‘this is the person who is responsible.’ ”
Letting people who have been charged with violent crimes out on bond “undermines the legitimacy of the criminal courts,” she said.
The American Civil Liberties Union of Illinois criticized Lightfoot’s comments, saying it’s “sad to see a highly-trained lawyer and former prosecutor so badly mangle the meaning of our Constitution.”
Of course, Lightfoot’s comments are in direct contradiction to a criminal justice reform law passed by Democrats last year that essentially ends cash bail in the state and would allow many people charged with crimes to remain free while awaiting trial.
Lightfoot and many other politicians in both parties have been critical of Cook County State’s Attorney Kim Foxx for failure to file charges related to many violent crimes.
Governor JB Pritzker said Monday he would call out the National Guard to Chicago to help quell the violence, but only if Lightfoot requested the help.
FORMER CONGRESSMAN JOHN PORTER DIES
Former Republican Congressman John Porter spent 20 years representing the north shore of Illinois in Congress. He was a staunch fiscal conservative with moderate social views. Porter died Friday at the age of 87.
More from Steve Zalusky at the Daily Herald:
Former Congressman John E. Porter, a Republican who set a moderate tone for his north suburban district that lives on today and mentored the next generation of its political leaders, has died at age 87.
Porter's family confirmed his death Sunday, saying the former lawmaker died Friday after a recent hospitalization.
His former chief of staff and protégé Mark Kirk described the Evanston native as someone who was "complete class" and respectful to everybody.
"The whole rough-and-tumble of classless politics was anathema to his character," said Kirk, who succeeded Porter in the U.S. House before being elected U.S. Senator in 2010. "He was representing the best-educated district in the country. The district wanted an independent leader, and he was that independent leader."
The son of a judge. Porter told the Daily Herald in 1972 that he was raised in a home where public service was a way of life.
"A person who is dedicated and honest can drive out some cynicism people feel about public office," he said then. "It is important to get someone who is honest and recognizes when a conflict exists, and doesn't allow it."
Porter is survived by his spouse, Amy, children and stepchildren, John, David, Annie, Robyn, Donna, McKay and Michelle, and 14 grandchildren. Our thoughts are with them.
BEFORE WE GO
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Have a great day.