THE ILLINOIZE: Top 10 Legislative Seats Likely to Flip in November

September 17, 2024

Good morning, Illinois.

Seven weeks to go. 49 days. I’d tell you it’ll be all over and everything will get back to normal, but, what is normal anymore?

Is the drive from the suburbs to Springfield getting longer? It felt like an 8 hour trip yesterday.

I’m in town doing the radio show live in the studio this morning then speaking at lunchtime to the Business & Industry Federation of Economic Concern.

We recorded a video with our friend Tom LoBianco of 24Sight on the attempted assassination of former President Trump. You can watch it here. While you’re at it, go subscribe to Tom’s newsletter.

There’s nothing on Governor Pritzker’s public schedule today.

Let’s get to it.

TOP TEN LEGISLATIVE SEATS MOST LIKELY TO FLIP IN NOVEMBER

First term Rep. Kevin Schmidt (R-Millstadt) is one of the most vulnerable members of the legislature in November.

OPINION

We’ve done these before (and I called 3 out of the top 5 correctly in 2020.) At the end of 2023, I did a handicap of 27 House districts that could be competitive this year.

This will not look great for Republicans, as you may imagine, but not every GOP insider is shaking in their loafers. I spoke to former Rep. Mark Batinick, who is now doing polling with firm M3 Strategies, who told me in their polling, mostly in the suburbs, More 2020 Biden voters are moving to Trump than 2020 Trump voters are moving to Harris. He also said the top two issues for voters are the economy and property taxes, which will generally be good for Republicans. But Democrats I’ve spoken to in recent days are extremely confident they have better maps, more money, and a Harris-led momentum in the state that will guide them to big wins in November.

Just a little context.

So, here you have it: