THE ILLINOIZE: The Top 10 Districts that could flip in November...The only Congressional candidate on TV...Previewing the Madigan hearing
September 8, 2020
WELCOME TO THE STRETCH
Welcome to the Tuesday after Labor Day, the traditional start of the fall campaign season. Though, I think that probably applies more to the Eisenhower administration than to 2020, but, we still say it. So, here we stand, a few weeks before ballots go out by mail amid a global pandemic, with three Congressional races and more than a dozen legislative races trying to figure out how to reach voters earlier and without door-to-door contact. Oh yeah, there’s also that presidential election thing gobbling up all the oxygen in the room.
I know it’s only our second week, but we’ll be covering these races and much, much more in this election. So, please share this newsletter to your friends and contacts to help us spread the word.
TOP 10 SEATS THAT COULD FLIP
An opinion piece up for you this morning in which I dug through fundraising reports, election results, trends and talked to smart people on both sides of the aisle to figure out which 10 seats in the General Assembly are most likely to flip parties in November.
Rep. Brad Stephens (R-Rosemont)
Rep. Allen Skillicorn (R-East Dundee)
Rep. Nathan Reitz (D-Steeleville)
Rep. Mark Batinick (R-Plainfield)
Rep. Anne Stava-Murray (D-Naperville)
OPEN (Sen. Jim Oberweis)
Rep. Grant Wehrli (R-Naperville)
Rep. Monica Bristow (D-Alton)
Sen. Dave Koehler (D-Peoria)
Rep. Diane Pappas (D-Itasca)
Agree? Disagree? Anyone we should move up or down? Anyone missing who should be there? E-mail me at patrick@theillinoize.com. I’ll share any good responses Friday.
LONDIGRAN ON TV
There are three major congressional races in Illinois this fall. There’s Casten/Ives in the 6th, Underwood/Oberweis in the 14th, and Davis/Londrigan in the 13th.) With three incumbents on the ballot and mail-in ballots heading out as early as September 24th, which one would you guess is the only one up on TV right after Labor Day?
Betsy Londrigan:
(Disclosure: I worked for Rodney Davis’ campaign in 2012.) I asked Davis’ campaign when they would be going up, but they did not respond.
MADIGAN HEARINGS START THURSDAY
A special investigative committee forced on Speaker Mike Madigan by House Republicans will kick off hearings Thursday in Springfield. The hearings come as another ComEd executive was charged in the scheme that has implicated the powerful septuagenarian speaker.
How will the hearings look? Per Capitol News Illinois’ Peter Hancock:
Under Illinois House rules, disciplinary proceedings against a member can be commenced whenever three or more members sign a petition with the speaker and minority leader spelling out allegations which, if true, may subject the member to disciplinary action.
House Minority Leader Jim Durkin, R-Western Springs, invoked that rule on Monday when he and two other Republicans, Reps. Ryan Spain and Andrew Chesney, filed such a petition. Madigan immediately recused himself from the process and delegated the decision to House Majority Leader Gregory Harris, D-Chicago.
In recusing himself, however, Madigan issued a blistering statement calling the request “a political stunt only months away from one of the most consequential elections of our lifetimes.” He also argued that there is no rule against legislators recommending people for jobs and that the legislation ComEd was seeking when it hired Madigan’s associates passed the General Assembly with broad bipartisan support.
The special investigative committee will be made up of six members, evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans. It will have the authority to call witnesses and issue subpoenas for documents and testimony, and to determine whether “reasonable grounds” exist to authorize charges against Madigan that can result in discipline.
Besides Wehrli, the two other Republicans are Reps. Tom Demmer, of Dixon, and Deanne Mazzochi, of Elmhurst. The Democrats include Reps. Elizabeth Hernandez, of Cicero, Natalie Manley, of Joliet, and Emanuel “Chris” Welch, of Hillside, who will chair the committee.
A majority vote of the committee is needed to authorize charges, so at least one Democrat would be needed for this to occur.
WEEKEND READING
Some things you may have missed over the long weekend:
Weekend COVID-19 update (Chicago Tribune)
Senate President Don Harmon’s office subpoenaed (Chicago Tribune)
CPS begins remote learning today (Sun-Times)
Darin LaHood gets a “Pants on Fire” over USPS claim (Sun-Times)
Calls for Ethics Commission to Do Something (DeKalb Daily Chronicle)
BEFORE WE LET YOU GO
Thank you to all of you who have read the newsletter in our first week. Your compliments and critiques have been very helpful. You drive this boat, so please send tips, suggestions, dirt, ideas, links, etc, please do. My email is patrick@theillinoize.com. If you’re a comms person, please add us to your distribution list: news@theillinoize.com.
And, please follow and share us on social media. We’re on Facebook and Twitter.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY
Happy Birthday to Lt. Governor Juliana Stratton. She knocked off Rep. Ken Dunkin in a 2016 primary and was picked by JB Pritzker as her running mate leading up to the 2018 Democratic primary. She’s still active on social media, but she’s taken a nearly non-existent profile in the state since the COVID-19 outbreak. Here’s to hoping that changes in the near future.
Have a great day.