THE ILLINOIZE: Sullivan's message test...Who should the GOP candidates pick for LG?...African American group wants DOJ review of legislative map
October 12, 2021
Good morning.
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Drop me a note anytime at patrick@theillinoize.com with questions or even just to chat about something. I spent an hour on the phone yesterday with a legislator that I don’t always agree with and I think we were both better for the conversation. We’re all smarter when we listen to what other people feel.
Let’s get to it.
INSIDE SULLIVAN’S MESSAGE TESTING
Republican gubernatorial candidate Jesse Sullivan appears to be planning to highlight his position in the field as an “outsider,” according to a poll seemingly conducted by his campaign this weekend.
Saturday, I received a text message poll through the popular online survey site “Survey Monkey.” (Yes, if you’ve never heard of it, it’s real and it’s used by business, non-profits, associations, etc.)
There was no direct financial disclosure in the text message or in the poll, and the Sullivan campaign did not return our messages about the poll. But numerous signals gave it away as a pro-Sullivan poll.
The first interesting thing wasn’t necessarily what Republican voters thought about former President Donald Trump, but what their candidates said and did about Trump.
(Pardon the bad image. The site didn’t allow screenshots, so I had to take a picture of my phone with my wife’s phone.)
Sullivan’s campaign also asked GOP voters exactly what the most important issue was to them.
I’ve said many times that on the GOP campaign trail in 2012, Republican voters cared about pro-life and pro-2nd amendment candidates. I’ll venture to bet those two issues fall near the bottom of this list.
Finally, and this may be the most interesting part of this for a campaign that has been criticized for a lack of depth and a candidate without any clear policy ideas, while testing the best messages, there still isn’t much clarity as to what Sullivan believes in.
Candidates test messages, that’s not anything new. I’ve done it and so have most of the top tier candidates you’ve seen over the years. But when I texted this photo to a Republican operative friend of mine who has a lot more experience with polling than I do (I’m a PR guy, not a pollster), his rhetorical question back to me mirrors what many Republican insiders seem to be asking:
“What are they doing?”
Go back and read that list of questions. Whether you’re a Republican primary voter or not, put yourself in those shoes and ask yourself “what statement in this list makes me want to vote for Jesse Sullivan?”
They used the four biographical topics and asked voters if any of those issues would make them more likely to vote for Sullivan. I’m guessing that number didn’t come back supremely positively.
I haven’t heard from anyone that got a telephone poll this weekend, so I don’t know if this was a combined phone/online poll or even if Sullivan has contracted with a legitimate pollster yet. We do know that with $11 million raised in his first week in the race, Sullivan can hire the best GOP pollster in the country.
I’m not out to get Sullivan, in fact, none of the Republicans who haven’t already taken a side in the primary have anything bad to say about him. He’s young, smart, handsome, well spoken, has a beautiful family, and a bright future.
But if Sullivan is going to make a dent in the Republican primary, much less take on a gigantic operation like the Pritzker campaign, it’s time to put a professional face on his campaign.
GOP LT. GOVERNOR SEARCH COULD FOCUS ON SUBURBS
I tend to do this every couple of months and you all seem to respond positively to it, so I asked a bunch of Republican political friends, current and former legislators, and other “insiders” about who the Republican candidates for governor should choose as their running mate.
You may remember after the Scott Lee Cohen disaster in 2010, Democrats changed the law that Lieutenant Governor and Governor candidates would run together on a ticket from the onset of a campaign and not be linked up by voters in a primary.
What it has lead to, though, is sometimes candidates picking a running mate out of practical political obscurity. In 2018, Democrat Chris Kennedy ran with Ra Joy, a Chicago gun and good government activist. In 2014, Bruce Rauner selected then-Wheaton City Council member Evelyn Sanguinetti. Then-Sen. Bill Brady selected Maria Rodriguez, the mayor of a suburban town of about 8,000 people.
With a current field of Republican candidates seen as vast underdogs against billionaire incumbent JB Pritzker, many insiders we spoke to were skeptical about who would take the job. Here’s a sampling of what folks had to say about potential running mates:
Sen. Darren Bailey (R-Xenia)
“Bailey should pick a suburban female and/or minority, ideally someone who is a parent of younger kids currently attending public school.”
“Bailey needs a moderate suburban woman, but I assume he would go with [Former Rep. Jeanne] Ives.”
“I think he picks someone aligned with his world view and won’t worry about geography or ideological balance.”
Suggested names: Former Rep. Jeanne Ives, Rep. Tom Morrison (R-Palatine), Rep. Blaine Wilhour (R-Beecher City), talk show host Amy Jacobson.
Businessman Gary Rabine
“[He needs] a central or southern Illinois female and/or minority state legislator or state official.”
“I think he could [select] a downstate woman, but I’m not sure what elected official would be interested.”
Suggested names: Rep. Avery Bourne (R-Morrisonville), former Lt. Gov. candidate Steve Kim, Rep. Tony McCombie (R-Savana), Sen. Jason Barickman (R-Bloomington), Sen. Jil Tracy (R-Quincy), former Rep. Sara Wojcicki Jimenez, businesswoman Sarah Frye.
Former Sen. Paul Schimpf
“Schimpf is best served by a suburban female and/or minority with a law enforcement background.”
“He wants Sue Rezin or someone like Sue Rezin.”
Suggested names: Sen. Sue Rezin (R-Morris), DuPage County Board Chair Dan Cronin, Rep. Tony McCombie (R-Savana), former Miss America and 2018 AG candidate Erika Harold, 42nd Ward Committeewoman Eloise Gerson, 3rd Ward Committeewoman Monique Hoffman.
Businessman Jesse Sullivan
“I would pick a suburban female and/or minority state legislator or state official.”
“Sullivan needs a known entity. But whoever he gets will probably know the issues better than him.”
Suggested names: Sen. Sue Rezin (R-Morris), Rep. Deanne Mazzochi (R-Elmhurst), Rep. Tony McCombie (R-Savana), DuPage County Board Chairman Dan Cronin, 41st Ward Committeewoman Ammie Kessem.
We also asked about potential running mates for Congressman Rodney Davis (R-Taylorville), who is flirting with running for Governor if he is drawn out of his congressional district.
“I think Davis would be best served by a moderate suburban female with legislative experience.”
Suggested names: Rep. Deanne Mazzochi (R-Elmhurst), former Sen. Karen McConnaughay, Sen. Sue Rezin (R-Morris), Aurora Mayor Richard Irvin, former Comptroller Leslie Munger.
A Rabine spokesman told me the campaign is casting a “wide net,” and doesn’t have clear parameters for what a running mate should look like.
“We want someone who is going to improve the ticket,” the spokesman said.
Former Sen. Paul Schimpf told me he didn’t have any updates on the search while the Bailey and Sullivan campaigns did not return our messages Monday.
More comments from insiders are posted on the website.
AFRICAN AMERICAN GROUP ASKS FEDS TO INVESTIGATE MAPS
A group of African American organizations have asked the federal Department of Justice to investigate whether legislative maps passed in May, and redone in August, violated the rights of minorities.
llinois African Americans for Equitable Redistricting (IAAFER), on behalf of the State’s Black Voters, filed a complaint with the U. S. Department of Justice regarding policies and practices that have led to Black voter dilution and retrogression of the number of Black Voting districts in the state of Illinois. IAAFER also shared concerns regarding prison gerrymandering and how the practice will divert over $800 million from Black communities to prison towns between now and the next Census. (A recently enacted law calls for the end of the practice effective 2025. That has the same effect as pushing the law off until 2030.)
The state of Illinois has recently enacted the most retrogressive redistricting plan in the State of Illinois' history. The number of majority Black representative districts have been cut from 16 in 2011, to 8 in 2021. The number of Black senate districts has been cut from 8 to 4. These are the lowest numbers of majority Black districts in 40 years. Ironically, the State of Illinois has a Progressive White Governor and Senate President and Black people in key positions, including Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General, Secretary of State, Chairperson of the Democratic Party of Illinois, Speaker of the House, Vice Chairperson of the Senate Redistricting Committee and Vice Chairperson of the House Redistricting Committee. The Illinois Legislative Black Caucus is the largest it has ever been, and arguably, the most powerful it has ever been.
Black people comprised 14% of Illinois’ population in 2011, and still comprise 14% of Illinois’ population in 2021. However, the number of majority Black districts has been cut by 50%. White people comprised 60% of Illinois’ population in 2011, and 58% of Illinois’ population in 2021. Yet, 69% if the districts drawn in the redistricting plan, are majority White. In fact, two new majority White representative districts were formed by dismantling a majority Black district in East St. Louis, Illinois.
You now have a Hispanic organization (MALDEF) suing over the maps and an African American group asking the DOJ to get involved. Remember that the next time you hear a legislative leader call this a partisan temper tantrum.
MEA CULPA
Blame Wikipedia. Apparently, I got Rep. Tony McCombie’s birthday wrong last week. She celebrated Saturday. I apologize for reading bad information.
CONGRATULATIONS
Congratulations to my friend and former officemate in the Senate, Rachel Bold, now with the House Republicans. She married GOP researcher Ed Murphy this weekend in Chicago. Best wishes to the crazy kids. I’m told their corgis celebrated by barking at nothing.
HAPPY BIRTHDAYS
Thursday- Former Rep. Patti Bellock
Sunday- Congressman Mike Quigley, Congresswoman Cheri Bustos
Monday- Former Senate President Emil Jones
BEFORE WE GO…