THE ILLINOIZE: Snowmageddon cancels session...Governor's budget address to go on?...Cassandra Tanner Miller's moving introduction...Candidates lining up
February 1, 2022
Good morning. Rabbit rabbit.
Welcome to a new month full of wonder, opportunity, and a crap ton of snow. I asked my friend meteorologist Greg Soulje, who is the weather face on “This Week in Agribusiness” as well as does reports on ESPN 95.3 in Champaign and WITY in Danville what he’s expecting.
“Snow,” he responded. Jerk.
Seriously, though, it’s going to be brutal in the central part of the state. Here’s what Greg said to expect between tomorrow and Friday morning:
Chicago metro ranges from 1 to 3" near the Wisconsin state line to 6 to 12" along the I-80 corridor. Most get 4-8," with higher totals in lake shore communities.
West central Illinois gets to 8-12"
He called the I-55 corridor between Springfield and Joliet the “epicenter” of the storm, expecting somewhere between 10 to 18" (you read that right.) He’s also concerned about period of freezing rain/glazing in central Illinois with a potential for 1/4 to 1/3" of ice prior to main snow event.
Southern Illinois could see 8 to 16" extending from the Metro East north and 1 to 5” east of there. There’s also significant concern about ice.
He’s expecting blowing and drifting snow from 30 to 40 mph winds Wednesday night into Thursday and subzero cold Saturday morning.
Yay. Be safe.
Also, a quick thanks to Judson University President (and subscriber!) Dr. Gene Crume for sending a small stuffed Judson Eagles mascot, I believe named AJ Eagle, to our little man.
Recruiting is underway for the class of 2040. Your move, Bob Jones.
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Let’s get to it.
STATE OF THE STATE AND BUDGET ADDRESS PREVIEW
I should note both the House and Senate have canceled session for the week due to the pending snowstorm, but there has been rumbling that Governor JB Pritzker may still deliver a combined State of the State and Budget address Wednesday. His office hasn’t confirmed, shocker, but we’ll keep an eye out. As for now, I’ll go ahead with our initial preview story.
The Governor’s office only shared details with preferred outlets, so we turn to the Tribune:
Democratic Gov. J.B. Pritzker’s reelection-year budget proposal on Wednesday will dangle the prospect of delivering relief on food, gasoline and property taxes to voters in a spending plan buoyed by an improved state financial outlook and federal coronavirus relief.
“The governor believes it’s important to focus on the cost of groceries, the cost of gas and the property tax burden and bring relief to families across the state,” Deputy Gov. Andy Manar, one of Pritzker’s top budget aides, said in an interview.
Pritzker’s nearly $1 billion tax relief proposal, which requires legislative approval and wouldn’t take effect until the state’s new budget year begins July 1, would suspend the 1% sales tax on grocery items, freeze the scheduled inflation-based increase to the gasoline tax, and offer homeowners a property tax rebate of up to $300.
Because the sales tax on groceries goes exclusively to local governments, Pritzker will propose that the state make up the difference, at an estimated cost of $360 million. The governor’s office estimates the state would forgo about $135 million in revenue for transportation improvements by freezing the gas tax and would pay $475 million in property tax rebates to homeowners.
While he declined to give a complete overview of Pritzker’s plan, including how much revenue the state expects to collect in the coming year or what total expenditures would be in the proposed operating budget, Manar said the governor will present a balanced proposal Wednesday to lawmakers. The current operating budget is roughly $42 billion.
“We’ve restored fiscal stability to the state budget,” Manar said. “We have balanced budgets. We have paid off debts, and we’ve controlled spending and caught up on our bills.
“That has not been the easiest task over the past several fiscal years. But the governor remains committed to introducing, negotiating and passing balanced budgets that meet his priorities and priorities of the people of the state.”
Republicans likely support temporary tax relief, even if it falls short of the permanent relief they’ve been clamoring for.
Sen. Chapin Rose (R-Mahomet), the Senate Republican budget point man, says he expects Pritzker to paint a rosy picture of state finances filled with fiscal responsibility, but he says state finances remain in perilous shape.
“That seems to be what the Democrat playbook is,” Rose said. “They keep telling people that despite the fact that there’s no food on the shelves, inflation is rampant, and there are no employees to work jobs, that everything’s fine. Everywhere you look, the actual ship of state is collapsing.”
HOW PERSONAL TRAGEDY BECOMES A CALLING FOR CHANGE
Cassandra Tanner Miller isn’t your typical Republican and she surely isn’t your typical candidate for Congress.
The 34-year-old mother and advocate for domestic violence survivors lost her son when her estranged husband killed the 18-month old baby in a murder-suicide in 2019.
Tanner Miller helped pass legislation aimed at combatting domestic violence. Monday, she announced she’s running for Congress.
In an emotional announcement video, Tanner Miller recalls the tragedy and how it compels her to make a difference.
In an interview last night, Tanner Miller told me she’s not using the tragedy that struck her life as a specific policy motivation.
“I don’t have a hook,” Tanner Miller said. “It’s a message. It’s the fact that I am your normal [person] that has daily struggles. I wanted to introduce myself in a very direct way. I didn’t want to take the approach that’s been taken by every other person that’s walked this path before me. That approach isn’t working and it isn’t going to get us the changes we need to accomplish.”
Tanner Miller says the root cause of domestic violence runs deep, and many of those issues need to be addressed in Congress.
“Education, poverty, our criminal justice system, racism, they’re all major issues,” Tanner Miller said. “Every societal kitchen table issue that we talk about in our homes all come back to safety within our homes.”
Tanner Miller describes herself as a conservative, but says she wants to bring the idea of working across the aisle with Democrats to Washington. She says the partisan nature of Congress frustrates people and stops important work from getting done.
“I’m a voice for a bipartisan, common sense way of doing things,” she said. “We need both parties to work together to actually make change. I am a conservative, I am a Republican, but I also understand that we have to work together in a bipartisan way to accomplish these things and meet the needs of the people we represent.”
Tanner Miller was remarried in August and is expecting a baby boy June 9, just two and a half weeks before the June 28 primary.
One word that never came up in our conversation about politics and policy last night? Trump.
CANDIDATES LINING UP
Just a quick rundown on some developing races:
I’m told Sen. Steve Stadelman (D-Rockford) took himself out of the running for the 17th congressional district last week and said he’ll seek re-election to the Senate. It sounds like he made his comments at a Winnebago County Democratic Party meeting, but I have yet to confirm it.
Kyle Ham, former Chief of Staff to State Treasurer Dan Rutherford and an aide to former Attorney General Jim Ryan will run in the new 105th district. The new 105th grabs the very northern tip of Bloomington-Normal and includes Pontiac, Eureka, Metamora, and Washington and goes as far north as Hennepin. WGLT says the other candidates are The other announced candidates are Woodford County Sheriff's Deputy Dennis Tipsord, unsuccessful congressional candidate Don Rients of Benson, Livingston County Board member Mike Kirkton of Gridley, and former LaSalle County State's Attorney Karen Donnelly. Ham would likely have the easiest time of any candidate in the field raising money. He told me lats night he does not live in the district and would have to move if elected. The 105th is solidly Republican.
House Republicans rolled out two preferred candidates over the weekend. Arin Thrower, a former TV reporter, will challenge Rep. Suzanne Ness (D-Crystal Lake) in the 66th District. Democrats strengthened the district for Ness from what she beat former Rep. Allen Skillicorn in 2020. President Biden won the district by around 11 percentage points, but Governor Pritzker only won it by around 2 points.
They also rolled out business owner Ashley Hunsaker to challenge Rep. Jay Hoffman (D-Swansea) in the 113th district. President Biden won the district by 18 percentage points and Governor Pritzker won it by 19. But the GOP was quick to point out to me that Republican Bruce Rauner won the district in 2014.
Democrat Cindy Cunningham will challenge Rep. Mike Marron (R-Fithian) for a third time in 2022, per the News-Gazette. She previously lost to him in 2018 and 2020. Marron’s district got a lot less friendly this time around. President Biden won it by four points in 2020 and Bruce Rauner won it by a fraction of a point in 2018. This is no longer a slam dunk GOP district.
Republican Heather Brown of West Chicago has created a committee in the 25th Senate district, held by freshman Sen. Karina Villa (D-West Chicago). It ain’t the district Jim Oberweis represented as Democrats drew it stronger for Villa. President Biden won it by 25 points and Governor Pritzker won it by 14 points.
Dr. Bill Hauter of Morton has filed his paperwork with the state intending to run in the new 87th District, which is being vacated by Rep. Keith Sommer (R-Mackinaw). There are a ton of names floating in this district, so we’ll keep an eye on it.
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Have a great day. Stay warm. Stay dry. Check this morning to make sure you have milk and coffee. (Does anything else matter?)