THE ILLINOIZE: Pritzker is running...Will a serious Republican challenge him?...More on fundraising...Demmer/Brady SoS update

July 20, 2021

Good morning.

In case you missed it, we gave paid subscribers a first look Friday at our interview with outgoing Legislative Inspector General Carol Pope, who announced last week she will resign. She said it is due, in part, to the General Assembly’s failure to enact meaningful ethics reform. She even said the job had taken on the Quixotic “tilting at windmills” feeling.

Remember, paid subscribers get two extra newsletters each week filled with exclusive interviews, stories, and analysis. Plus, papa has to pay the rent. I hope you’ll join us by clicking below.

Now that we’ve passed the hat, let’s get into it.

PRITZKER LAUNCHES RE-ELECT

It wasn’t that long ago that launching a statewide campaign meant the meticulously planned “fly around” from city to city around the state trying to hit multiple media markets and land on the 6pm news and in the next morning’s newspaper.

My how times have changed.

Without press events, interviews, or travel, Governor JB Pritzker yesterday announced his campaign for re-election next year with a 3:00 YouTube video.

The Governor’s video leans in to his response to the COVID-19 pandemic in the video, which likely polls well in the suburbs but likely polls terribly downstate. But, if you’re a progressive candidate with unlimited funds to focus on suburban moms, you really don’t need downstate. But it could be bad news for downstate Democrats like Sen. Rachelle Crowe (D-Glen Carbon) or Rep. Lance Yednock (D-Ottawa).

A Republican poll last month gave Pritzker a 54% approval rating, which is heavily improved on a 43% rating from Morning Consult during the pandemic last year. Clearly there’s confidence in Pritzkerville.

Neither the Governor’s campaign or Quentin Fulks, one of his top advisors, responded to questions yesterday. Fulks is on the campaign payroll.

According to Pritzker’s latest campaign finance report, Ronja Abel, who was Communications Director for then-Montana Governor Steve Bullock, is on the campaign.

Chris Allen, a DC-based former Hillary Clinton campaign staffer is also on the payroll. His LinkedIn identifies him as a “Senior Advisor.”

I’ve asked around to see if Anne Caprara, Pritzker’s current Chief of Staff and highly praised Campaign Manager for his 2018 race, will reprise her role.

As of this writing, I haven’t heard back from Fulks for any other details.

Announcement and reaction here.

WILL A REAL GOP CHALLENGER JUMP IN?

With all due respect to Paul Schimpf and Gary Rabine, (I’ve made my thoughts on Darren Bailey pretty clear here) Republicans don’t yet have a candidate that can beat Pritzker next year.

None of the announced candidates have a track record of fundraising or policy successes, and it’s hard to believe any of them can put together a suburban coalition strong enough to compete next November, much less win.

Enter Congressman Rodney Davis (R-Taylorville). It’s no secret he’s been thinking about, and is even serious about, a run if he gets drawn out of his congressional district (which is widely expected).

Disclosure: I worked as Communications Director on Davis’ campaign in 2012.

Davis has been tweaking Pritzker over the past few months, was one of the first to whack Pritzker on Twitter yesterday, and did a TV interview this weekend where he sounded more like a candidate than not.

I asked Davis’ spokesman if he is doing anything to to lay the groundwork for a statewide run and I got crickets back. Davis ended June with about $690,000 in his federal campaign account. Most of that would be transferrable to a state committee, though it pales in comparison to the $32 million (yes, million) Pritzker has on hand. Davis’ entry into the race could get a politically active billionaire like Ken Griffin, Illinois’ richest person, to pump hundreds of millions into the race.

I’ve always said Davis has one of the trickiest districts in the state to represent with far more liberal areas like Champaign and Urbana city proper, the urban portions of Bloomington-Normal, and similar neighborhoods in Decatur, Springfield, and the Metro East surrounded by red state MAGA cap wearin’ rural areas like Christian, Montgomery, Macoupin, and Jersey counties.

He’ll get more eyes on him in the coming weeks as it looks likes House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy will appoint Davis to the commission investigating the January 6 insurrection and riot at the U.S. Capitol. I don’t expect Davis to toe the party line on the commission, so that could have potential impact with a Trumpdrunk primary electorate.

GAUGING POTENTIAL 2022 CASH

We shared fundraising stats with subscribers Friday, and wanted to share with you how some of the potential primary or general election races that are shaping up under the new map look after reports were filed last week. Of course, all of these are potential matchups, and we’ll see if the maps change and who decides to move to run in a different district.

• (23rd Senate) Sen. Suzy Glowiak-Hilton (D-Western Springs) and Sen. Tom Cullerton (D-Villa Park) were drawn into the same district. Cullerton, as you know, is under federal indictment and Senate leadership may be trying to show him the door. Hilton has around $52,000 cash. Cullerton has around $1,500.

• (37th Senate) Sen. Win Stoller (R-Peoria) is well liked among his Senate colleagues and has around $256,000 cash on hand. He could get a challenge from Rep. Tony McCombie (R-Savana), who told us she’s planning to move into Stoller’s district. McCombie has around $217,000 on hand. Though, if Rep. Tom Demmer (R-Dixon) runs for another office, she could have an open House seat for the taking. More on Demmer below.

• (46th House) Democrats put the screws to Rep. Deanne Mazzochi (R-Elmhurst), moving her five houses out of a cushy Republican district. They’ve placed her in a potentially high profile General Election matchup with Rep. Deb Conroy (D-Elmhurst). Mazzochi, not one to back away from a fight, pumped $150,000 into her account last quarter. She filed with around $176,000 on hand. Conroy has around $177,000.

• (47th House) Rep. Amy Grant (R-Wheaton) and Rep. Seth Lewis (R-Bartlett) are in the same district. Grant held on to defeat a well-funded Democrat last year while Lewis took out Democrat Diane Pappas. About a year out from the primary, Grant has around $6,000 cash and Lewis has around $13,000.

• (50th House) This is one that could change. Rep. Keith Wheeler (R-Oswego) and Rep. Dan Ugaste (R-Geneva) are drawn into the new 50th District. Wheeler is sitting on around $163,000. Ugaste has around $16,000. Wheeler, we hear, may be instead be planning a battle with Rep. David Welter (R-Morris) in the new 75th House district. Wheeler hasn’t returned our call about that, by the way. Welter has around $92,000 cash on hand.

• (51st House) Democrats think Rep. Tom Morrison (R-Palatine) is too conservative for the suburbs, but haven’t been able to beat him out. Rep. Chris Bos (R-Lake Zurich) surprised Democrat Mary Edly-Allen last year. Morrison has around $46,000 on hand. Bos has around $8,000.

• (99th House) Neither Rep. Randy Frese (R-Paloma) or Rep. C.D. Davidsmeyer (R-Jacksonville) have a lot of opportunity to move to an open district. Davidsmeyer has around $221,000 on hand. Frese has $56,000.

• (108th House) I have a hard time believing Rep. Mike Murphy (R-Springfield) and Rep. Avery Bourne (R-Morrisonville) end up in a primary together, but they have been drawn into the same district. Bourne, a rising GOP star, has around $65,000 cash on hand. Murphy has around $77,000.

  

  DEMMER/BRADY UPDATE

  

  Rep. Tom Demmer (R-Dixon) has been giving me the cold shoulder the last couple of weeks, so I wondered what he was up to.

  Turns out, he hasn’t changed his status much. He says he’s still leaning toward running for Secretary of State, but says he hasn’t taken any option off the table. Demmer, 35, is one of the best policy minds in the House GOP and losing him for a risky statewide race surely frustrates GOP leadership.

  Demmer, by the way, has around $460,000 cash in his campaign account.

  He could be facing a primary for Secretary of State with Rep. Dan Brady (R-Bloomington). Brady has openly said he’s thinking about jumping into the SoS race. Brady also had the poll a couple of weeks ago that showed him within a few points of Democratic frontrunner Alexi Giannoulias. Giannoulias, the former State Treasurer, has almost $3 million cash built up. Brady has around $178,000 cash.

  

  HAPPY BIRTHDAY

  Former Comptroller and former Deputy Governor Dan Hynes turns 53 today.

  Former Sen. John Mulroe celebrates tomorrow.

  Thursday, former Governor Jim Edgar turns 75. Former Congressman Tim Johnson also turns 75 Friday.

  Former Senator and Chicago City Clerk Miguel del Valle turns 70 Saturday. Rep. Anthony DeLuca celebrates Sunday. And former Senate Republican Leader Frank Watson celebrates Monday.

  

  BEFORE WE GO

  What are you hearing? Any rumors or rumblings? Are you in the energy bill discussions? Are you Christian Mitchell? Drop me a note at patrick@theillinoize.com.

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