THE ILLINOIZE: Post-election special edition...The dust settles...Pritzker wins re-election...Epic disaster up and down the ballot for GOP

November 9, 2022

Good morning, Illinois.

The Associated Press called the race for governor last night at 7:03 p.m. kind of surprising everyone. After a WGN poll a couple of weeks ago showed the race had closed to 9 and the general feeling (from Republicans and Democrats) was that the environment was closing for Republicans.

Boy, were we wrong.

It was a blowout.

More below.

I’ll be discussing the results on WDWS in Champaign this morning with my old friend Brian Barnhart. You can join us at 10am at www.wdws.com.

We’ll also have our weekly Livestream and podcast today doing a post-mortem on the results from yesterday. I’ll be joined by former Democratic Rep. Litesa Wallace and outgoing Republican Rep. Mark Batinick. Watch on YouTube here. It will also be on Facebook and Twitter.

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What was your biggest takeaway from Election night? Drop me a note at patrick@theillinoize.com.

Let’s get to it.

PRITZKER DOMINATES TO WIN A SECOND TERM, MAKES NATIONAL PLAY

Four years after winning a decisive victory over incumbent Republican governor Bruce Rauner, JB Pritzker secured re-election with another runaway win, this time over conservative southern Illinois Sen. Darren Bailey (R-Xenia).

With around 95% of precincts reporting (around 4:30 a.m.), Pritzker led Bailey by around 430,000 votes, 54%-43%. Pritzker is close to matching his 54.5% share of the vote in 2018 and will only be the second winner since Illinois gubernatorial races moved to presidential midterm years to garner over 2,000,000 votes. (He has 2,070,981, compared to around 2.5 million in 2018.)

Pritzker, the billionaire heir to the Hyatt Hotels fortune, put $110 million of his own money into his campaign this year, and made millions more in contributions to other candidates.

In his victory speech, Pritzker made direct reference to beating back spending from billionaire Republican donors Richard Uihlein (who funded Bailey and the third-party PAC run by radio host Dan Proft) and Ken Griffin (who funded Richard Irvin’s primary campaign).

“Two of the nation’s biggest MAGA Republican billionaires, along with their teams of political grifters, spewed lies and innuendo and you showed them that Illinois is a state that stands up for working families and rejects their selfish agenda,” Pritzker said in front of a roaring crowd of supporters.

“To the people of Illinois, thank you for placing your trust in me to carry out this mission for four more years,” Pritzker said. “I won’t let you down.”

Pritzker then widened the angle of his speech, seemingly aiming toward the MSNBC crowd nationally as he potentially eyes the race for President if Joe Biden doesn’t seek re-election.

Pritzker attacked Republicans, calling them filled with hate and “treasonous insurrectionists” who broke into the Capitol on January 6, 2021.

“Until the Republican Party is ready to expel the extremists in their midst, we need to do it for them at the ballot box,” Pritzker said. “You don’t get to wave a moderate flag from your front porch while you’re having a picnic in the backyard with insurrectionists.”

He also took aim at former President Donald Trump, who is expected to announce an effort to regain the presidency in the coming days.

“To the fake patriots and their enablers: you don’t love the United States if you’re not willing to defend it against a man who would destroy it,” Pritzker said. “Donald Trump is the modern embodiment of tyranny that our founders feared the most. So don’t lecture us about norms or typical political practices. Against a party that nominates anti-Semites, and racists, and anti-immigrant zealots, appeasement and complacency do not work. You know what works? Winning works.”

Pritzker is the first Illinois Governor to win a second (full) term since Rod Blagojevich in 2006, though Blagojevich was impeached and removed from office in 2009 and didn’t finish his second term. Jim Edgar is the last Illinois Governor to serve two full terms, from 1991-1999.

THE REPUDIATION OF THE MODERN REPUBLICAN PARTY

Darren Bailey lost the governor’s race because he lost the suburbs.

The conservative southern Illinois farmer won the vast majority of downstate counties (as of 4:30 a.m., he was losing in Champaign, DeKalb, McLean, Peoria, and Rock Island counties) but met a proverbial “blue wall” and was deeply rejected by Cook and other suburban counties.

Pritzker led in the city of Chicago 81%-17% (falling short of the generally regarded baseline of 20% in the city for a Republican to win statewide. Pritzker leads in suburban Cook County 65%-33%, 59% to 38% in Lake County, 55% to 41% in DuPage County, 50%-47% in Will County, and 49%-48% in Kendall County.

Bailey only won in McHenry County, 51%-46%.

Speaking in Springfield, Bailey conceded, but was undeterred with his criticism of state government.

“Illinois can be better. Illinois must be better. Our leaders must be better,” he said. “And, JB Pritzker, you need to be better. You need to be better for Illinois. You need to be better for our children and you need to be better for our grandchildren.”

Bailey pledged to “roll up my sleeves” and continue working with his “movement,” as some GOP insiders believe he may be planning a challenge to Congressman Mike Bost (R-Murphysboro) in 2024.

“Republicans need to be the loyal opposition in Springfield,” Bailey said. “Loyal to our state, loyal to our country, loyal to our constitution, but in opposition to the radical policies of the Democrats.”

A key Republican texted us late Tuesday night arguing with Bailey’s assertion.

“He summed up the entire problem with the GOP,” the Republican insider said. “That misses the point that most voters aren’t partisans. They don’t want loyal opposition. They want solutions and problem solvers.”

Because he ran for another state office, Bailey is giving up his seat in the Senate, meaning he’ll leave office in January after one term in the House and one two-year term in the Senate.

DEMOCRATS HOLD SENATE SEAT, ALL CONGRESSIONAL SEATS

As insiders on both sides scrambled in the final days of the election cycle, key operatives and candidates in either party believed the environment was improving for Republicans and as many as five contested House races could all go for the GOP.

The GOP lost all five.

As of 4:30 a.m., Congressman Sean Casten (D-Downers Grove) leads Orland Park Mayor Keith Pekau 54%-46% in the 6th District. Congressman Bill Foster (D-Naperville) defeated Republican Catalina Lauf, leading 56%-44%. Democrat Nikki Budzinski flipped the new 13th District, defeating Republican Regan Deering. Budzkinski led 55%-45%. Congresswoman Lauren Underwood (D-Naperville) defeated Republican Kendall County Board Chairman Scott Gryder. She led 54%-46% with 79% of precincts reporting.

The AP has called races for Casten, Foster, Budzinski, and Underwood. The AP has not called the 17th district race, though Democrat Eric Sorensen is claiming victory.

With 86% of precincts reporting, Sorensen leads Republican Esther Joy King 52%-48%. Around 7,500 votes separate the two.

Senator Tammy Duckworth won re-election to the United States Senate, defeating Republican Kathy Salvi. With 95% of precincts reporting, Duckworth led Salvi 56%-42%. The AP called the race for Duckworth shortly after 7:00p.m.

DISASTER FOR HOUSE GOP, SUPREME COURT, FEW SENATE GOP GAINS

House

House Republican Leader Jim Durkin (R-Western Springs) will almost surely get a challenge for leadership after his caucus was shellacked in races around the state Tuesday night.

Incumbent Republicans Rep. Chris Bos (R-Lake Zurich) and Rep. Keith Wheeler (R-Oswego) both lost their seats. Rep. Deanne Mazzochi (R-Elmhurst) leads by just 164 votes, and numerous Republicans we spoke to early Wednesday believe she will fall behind as late-arriving mail-in ballots are counted.

Republican Jennifer Sanalitro leads in the new 48th District, which stretches from Wood Dale to Carol Stream in northern DuPage County. Democrats won three other newly-drawn districts. Republicans will also lose the seat being vacated by Rep. Mark Batinick (R-Plainfield).

The only incumbent Democrat who appears to be losing their seat is Rep. LaToya Greenwood (D-East St. Louis), who trails Kevin Schmidt by around 6,000 votes with 66% reporting. Greenwood was not considered to be a “tier one” target.

Supreme Court

Republicans are losing both competitive Supreme Court races. Lake County Judge Elizabeth Rochford defeated former Lake County Sheriff Mark Curran 54%-46%. With 92% of precincts reporting, Republican incumbent Justice Michael Burke trails Appellate Justice Mary K. O’Brien by around 8,000 votes, 51%-49%.

Senate

Senate Republicans had the only shred of success Tuesday. Republican Erica Conway Harriss defeated appointed Democrat Kris Tharp, leading 51%-49% in the Metro East district. Rep. Seth Lewis (R-Bartlett) also picked up an open suburban seat, defeating Laurie Nowak 52%-48%.

Plainfield Police Office Patrick Sheehan leads embattled Sen. Mike Hastings (D-Frankfort) by just 68 votes (with 99% reporting), though late arriving mail-in ballots are expected to break toward Hastings.

In the $6 million 48th Senate District from Springfield to Decatur, appointed Sen. Doris Turner (D-Springfield) defeated Rep. Sandy Hamilton (R-Springfield) by around 1,300 votes. That was a blow for the GOP.

Lots more coming for subscribers this afternoon.

BEFORE WE GO…

Enjoyed being on WGN-TV last night with the incredible professionals there. I had some thoughts on the future of the GOP, which you can see here. I got to share a guest seat with Democratic lobster & lawyer and former Assistant Deputy Governor Lisa Duarte. I may not be the most popular person in the Pritzker administration, but I hope you see that people who don’t always agree on politics can get along.

With that, I’m going to bed. Have a great day.