THE ILLINOIZE: Picking up the pieces...Is Tony McCombie the big winner of Election Night?...Sorensen overperforms Harris in 17th Congressional

November 7, 2024

Good morning, Illinois.

In 2020, Joe Biden won Illinois by 1,025,024 votes. It was, essentially, 58%-41%.

Four years later, Kamala Harris has won the state, but the difference is telling.

In its latest update just before 4:00 A.M., the Associated Press show Harris leads Trump by around 419,000 votes. It’s currently 53%-45%.

Harris is currently underperforming Biden’s 2020 number in the state by around 700,000 votes (though she’ll get more as final ballots are counted over the next two weeks.)

What happened nationally happened here, too.

There’s nothing on Governor Pritzker’s public schedule today.

Let’s get to it.

TUESDAY NIGHT’S WINNER: HOUSE REPUBLICANS?

The prognostications from many observers headed into Tuesday projected that it wasn’t “if” House Democrats were going to pick up seats, but “how many?”

Buoyed by gerrymandered maps and a gigantic financial advantage, Democrats were supremely confident.

But all through the summer and fall, House Republican Leader Tony McCombie (R-Savana) projected confidence. She said the House GOP would hold its 40 seats and potentially win a couple of others.

So far, her wall is holding.

In House District 52, Rep. Marty McLaughlin (R-Barrington Hills) leads Democrat Maria Peterson by 969 votes with 100% of precincts reporting. (That’s 28,532 to 27,563).

In House District 47, Rep. Amy Grant (R-Wheaton) leads Democrat Jackie Williamson by exactly 500 votes with 100% of precincts reporting. (That’s 29,531 to 29,031).

In House District 104, Rep. Brandun Schweizer (R-Danville) leads Democrat Jarrett Clem by 771 votes with 100% of precincts reporting. (A difference of 23,163 to 22,392).

In House District 114, Rep. Kevin Schmidt (R-Millstadt) leads Democrat LaToya Greenwood by 1,844 votes with 100% of precincts reporting. (22,669 to 20,825).

The McLaughlin, Grant, and Schweizer districts could still be swayed by late arriving mail-in ballots, but all are still in contention and have survived millions in collective spending against them.

“If they hold on, it’s practically a win for House Republicans,” one GOP consultant texted early Wednesday morning.

The GOP even appeared to put some Democrat-held seats in play with mail-in ballots still outstanding.

In House District 76, Democrat Amy Murri-Briel leads Republican Liz Bishop by 505 votes, though mail-in ballots are expected to benefit the Democrat.

And in other districts, like the 45th, 66th, 97th, or 112th, severely underfunded GOP candidates held their own against a mountain of Democratic cash.

“If Tony can figure out how to raise some money, we can make a big dent in things in two years,” the GOP consultant said. “But raising money seems to be our kryptonite.”

SORENSEN WINS 17TH, ALL INCUMBENTS WIN

Congressman Eric Sorensen (D-Moline) defeated Winnebago County Judge Joe McGraw in the 17th Congressional District Tuesday, in a race the Associated Press didn’t call until early Wednesday morning.

Just before 4:00 A.M., the AP showed 88% of precincts reporting and Sorensen leading McGraw by around 22,000 votes. His lead is 54%-46%, outpacing Harris’ result in the district.

As of this morning, the Associated Press has yet to call Congresswoman Nikki Budzinski (D-Springfield)’s 13th Congressional District. But that’s only because AP hasn’t uploaded Champaign County results yet.

Budzinski, joining me on the radio this morning, called it a “disastrous night for Democrats.” (We’ll post the audio of our chat on Twitter this morning.)

There was a lot of confusion at one point during the night as the AP incorrectly uploaded St. Clair County results and it showed Budzinski trailing by 60,000 votes at one point. Oops.

All other Illinois members of congress were re-elected Tuesday night.