THE ILLINOIZE: Over 1.3 Million mail in ballots requested already...How has it changed campaigns?...Griffin drops $20 million against tax hike amendment...Is Durkin poking the bear?

Friday, September 4, 2020

LABOR FROM HOME DAY WEEKEND

Enjoy your Labor Day weekend, you know, the break we all take from our jobs in offices around other people to be surrounded by family who we don’t usually get to see enough of? Everything is weird this year, even the holidays.

Thank you to everyone who read our first edition Tuesday and had nice comments and even shared it with your friends. Please feel free to drop us tips at patrick@theillinoize.com. And share us with as many political folks as you can think of.

1.3 MILLION BALLOTS REQUESTED ALREADY…Postal Service says ‘no sweat’

The State Board of Elections reports over 1.3 million vote by mail applications have been received already, and ballots won’t even begin to go out until September 24 at the earliest. Even with all of the pandemic-era push toward mail-in ballots, the growth is astronomical. In 2018, McHenry County had a total of about 8,000 mail-in ballots. Already, County Clerk Joe Tirio tells me they’re ticking up to 40,000 requests. That’s 2018 five times over with three weeks before ballots even start to go out.

Surprisingly, even though President Donald Trump has tried to call mail-in voting corrupt, the huge increase is even reflected in small, heavily Republican counties. Trump, meanwhile, has been slapped around in national media for moves by the Postmaster General to cut costs in a business $8 billion in the red last year. But, Postal Service spokesman Tim Norman says “Election Mail” (he used the proper noun) will only make up about a 2% increase in mail between now and Election Day.

Norman gave me a really interesting stat regarding the massive amounts of mail delivered everyday. He says USPS delivers 433 million pieces of mail…A DAY. (No word on how many of those are Papa John’s coupons.) So, if every single American (roughly 330 million, and a bunch are under 18) mailed a ballot, it would only make up about 3/4 of a single day’s mail volume.

WHAT ABOUT CAMPAIGNS?

We spoke with two experienced campaign operatives, one Republican and one Democrat, about what the earlier than ever mass of votes will mean for campaigns. Maybe this is more interesting to me as I’ve got a design for direct mail up on my other screen right now, but I was enamored by what these pros had to say. The quote to take with you, from our Republican operative, especially in a world of text messages, remote learning, and never-ending Zoom calls: “Look at this Presidential election. Biden is almost doing the front porch campaigns of James A. Garfield or William McKinley.  Who would have thought?”

What’s old is new again.

KEN GRIFFIN PONIES UP

The richest human in Illinois, billionaire investor Ken Griffin, dropped $20 million into “The Coalition to Stop the Proposed Tax Hike Amendment.” The filing was made just after 10pm last night, so we don’t have a lot of details about it. The group has received big checks from Republican heavy hitters like Craig Duchossois ($100k), Richard Uihlein ($100k), and Sam Zell ($100k), but $20 million from Griffin puts them in a category where they can compete with the $51.5 million Governor JB Pritzker put into his “Vote Yes for Fairness” committee in June. They’ll need to sharpen up their messaging, as their first TV spot is less than impressive. There are at least 3 or 4 anti-amendment groups formed, while Pritzker’s pro-graduated income tax group seems to be the sole mouthpiece for the issue. Business groups may want to find a way to tighten up their spending and message.

DURKIN’S MADIGAN PLAY

House Republican Leader Jim Durkin got lots of play this week with his move to form an investigative committee into the ties of House Speaker Michael Madigan to Commonwealth Edison in the gigantic federal bribery case filed last month. Durkin may have the committee formed and got a press pop out of it, but let’s not start drawing up articles of impeachment against the septuagenarian Speaker just yet.

A couple of things to note: the committee is evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans. First, even for a slap on the wrist, one Democrat would have to turn on the Speaker and vote with Republicans. Secondly, Majority Leader Greg Harris (Madigan recused himself) appointed Reps. Chris Welch, Lisa Hernandez, and Natalie Manley to the joint committee. Manley’s district is probably the most competitive, and she won 65% of the vote in 2018. There likely won’t be any political repurcussion if the three Democrats stay on board with Madigan. Third, there’s likely no guarantee the committee even meets before the election. You may recall the Joint Commission on Ethics and Lobbying Reform hasn’t met since March since before the ComEd issue even reared its head.

Madigan surely won’t go without responding to Durkin’s shot across the bow. At the end of June, the House Republican Organization had around $400,000 cash on hand. At the same time, Madigan’s Democratic Majority Committee had around $4.3 million on hand. Republicans in marginally Democratic districts may see a blizzard of spending over the next 60 days.

WE’RE STILL HERE

If you made it all the way down here, thank you. We’re so honored you took a few minutes of your day to read this newsletter. We’re going to keep digging around and trying to find interesting things for you as we continue. We love tips, suggestions, if you want to scream obscenities at me, go for it. My email is patrick@theillinoize.com. If you’re a comms person, please add us to your distribution list: news@theillinoize.com.

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POINT OF PERSONAL PRIVILEGE

A shout-out to my 8-year-old niece Moira, who got a tweet and facebook post from California Senator and Democratic VP nominee Kamala Harris last night after Moira drew a better campaign poster than my designers can come up with. This girl is going to run the world someday, count on it.

Also, in my rush to get the first edition of the newsletter out Tuesday, I forgot to acknowledge the 9/1 birthday of former First Lady Brenda Edgar. Like a fine wine, she gets better with age.

Have a wonderful weekend.