THE ILLINOIZE: Monday Free for All...The rightward move of the Illinois GOP...Trump...Pritzker to New Hampshire
June 20, 2022
Good morning, Illinois.
For you early risers, I’ll be on WLS-AM in Chicago a little after 6 this morning talking politics with their new morning show host, Steve Cochran. You can listen online here.
I tweeted about a new internal poll from Republican gubernatorial candidate Jesse Sullivan, showing him in a dead heat with presumed frontrunner Sen. Darren Bailey (R-Xenia).
I had a lot of pushback for “reporting” the poll, though, if any campaign releases an internal poll, I’m going to tweet it. The Bailey campaign wanted you to believe it is “fake” and others questioned that no specifics, geographic, or full results. I told the Bailey camp they could send me their latest poll, but they did not seem eager to do so.
I want, though, to add a major caveat to the results of the Sullivan poll. Obviously, I don’t know if its true. None of us knows what’s really in the minds of voters, but this poll is an outlier. Every poll released publicly over the past few weeks has shown Bailey gaining on and passing Irvin with Sullivan a distant third.
The main reason I question Sullivan jumping from 17-points in a poll in the past week to 27 and leading is simply an exercise in how much money he’s spending on TV. Ad impact is measured by what’s called a “gross ratings point.” Essentially, each point you buy is the number of viewers you reach. Last week on Chicago broadcast TV (WBBM, WLS, WGN, WMAQ, WLFD), Sullivan spend around $315,000. Bailey’s campaign spent around $485,000. It’s hard to make up ground when you’re being outspent. And Sullivan continues to be outspent.
Governor Pritzker celebrates Juneteenth at a school on the south side later this morning.
It is 8 days to election day.
If you haven’t yet become a subscriber, I’m planning to release some big news in the 15th congressional district this afternoon. Just click below to join us! It’s 9.99 per month or $99 per year. Just click below.
Let’s get to it.
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The future of the Illinois GOP — and how far right it may go — lie with this month’s primary (Chicago Tribune)
Much of the party’s future direction will be determined by the GOP’s nominee for governor. The candidates are six men who say that they, to varying degrees, oppose abortion, additional gun regulation, tax-supported services for immigrants living in the country without legal permission and government “handouts.”
In the closing weeks of the primary campaign, the contest has evolved into largely a two-man race between state Sen. Darren Bailey of Xenia, a far-right conservative, and Aurora Mayor Richard Irvin, symbolizing the more moderate GOP establishment candidate.
To be sure, the electoral map of Illinois has changed greatly since Edgar was first elected 32 years ago. Back then, downstate was a swing area that is now heavily dominated by Republicans and the once-reliably Republican suburbs have become more Democratic due to cultural and demographic changes, with once-moderate GOP suburban voters becoming independents or even Democrats.
Related: Kent Gray challenges Tim Butler (Illinois Times)
State Supreme Court again declines to rule on FOID Act (Capitol News Illinois)
Trump factor hangs heavy in Downstate race for Congress (Chicago Tribune)
It was a Friday fish fry night at American Legion Post 1135 and about three dozen people had gathered at the invitation of local Republicans to talk politics and candidates over cold beer, fried buffalo fish and baked beans.
The Legion hall was situated in the tiny town of Eldred, located in the ruby-red part of southwestern Illinois about 50 miles from St. Louis. A framed American flag adorned one wall of the hall, while a Confederate flag was encased in a sideboard, beneath a poster for its Queen of Hearts lottery drawing.
Bail denied in fatal shooting of woman in broad daylight
“You come down here and you see the rebel flags and good ol’ boys sitting up at the bar drinking and they’re all rednecks and they’re all conservative,” said Greene County Board Chairman Mark Strang. “It’s just, we’re a very conservative part of the state.”
It is the calibration of conservatism versus practicality — and the depth of devotion to former President Donald Trump — that will be measured in Illinois’ lone matchup of Republican incumbents in Congress on June 28. The battle features five-term Rep. Rodney Davis of Taylorville taking on freshman Rep. Mary Miller of Oakland in the newly drawn 15th Congressional District.
The head-to-head contest is an offshoot of new congressional boundaries drawn by state lawmakers in Springfield following the federal census and Illinois’ loss of one of its current 18 U.S. House seats. Miller’s home was narrowly drawn into a district with another Republican, U.S. Rep. Mike Bost of Murphysboro, but she opted instead to challenge Davis. Members of Congress do not have to live in the district they represent.
“I’ve got to be a realist. Rodney has a tough district,” said Strang, adding that the county traditionally was a staunch backer of Davis, 52, when it was part of the 13th Congressional District.
“Rodney isn’t as conservative as I would like for him to be,” he said. “I would like to see him be more of a Trump supporter and things like that and he can’t take my thoughts and go run in Champaign County because they don’t think like we do over here.”
“I think she’s probably more conservative, but I think it’s going to be a tough sell around some of those bigger towns,” Strang said of Miller’s chances and strategy. “I think she needs to get her message out more to the people.”
More on this race in tomorrow’s newsletter.
Related: Mary Miller and Rodney Davis square off in the heated GOP primary to return to Congress (WBEZ)
Congressional races head for homestretch: Incumbent Democrat Krishnamoorthi faces challenge in 8th District primary, while 5 candidates vie for GOP nomination (Chicago Tribune)
Crypto billionaire’s PAC spends nearly $1 million in Illinois Democratic congressional primaries (Chicago Sun-Times)
Pritzker dishes to New Hampshire Dems, stoking speculation of White House run (Chicago Sun-Times)
Illinois Gov J.B. Pritzker on Saturday did nothing to quell speculation over a possible run for president as he delivered a self-effacing speech before New Hampshire Democrats — making light of his weight and wealth — and worked to introduce himself as a leader with his “heart on his sleeve” who is willing to fight for the party.
With rampant buzz about Pritzker’s political ambitions — coupled with the fundraising power he brings as a billionaire — the Democratic governor’s latest push for Chicago to host the Democratic National Convention is another sign there’s a trial balloon out there to see if Democrats view the governor of Illinois as a presidential contender.
Pritzker’s task for Democrats in what has historically been the first-in-the-nation presidential primary state was simple: show his deliverables.
“My friends thought I was crazy to run for governor. They told me state government couldn’t be repaired. And anyway, who would vote for someone like me? Look, I’m a Ukrainian American,” Pritzker said to applause. “I haven’t finished the list yet, and it gets worse from here. A Ukrainian American Jewish Democratic billionaire businessman. That’s not exactly the archetype that the party was looking for to run for governor. That’s okay with me. I know who I am and where I come from.”
Pritzker also made reference to his weight, saying a campaign slogan from his 2018 gubernatorial campaign was “Think Big,” which he admitted “was a pun on my size.”
Related: Illinois paid out nearly $2 billion in federal funds for fraudulent pandemic unemployment claims, audit finds (Chicago Tribune)
Sangamon County judge orders Illinois DHS secretary to appear (Rockford Register-Star)
Illinois House candidate distances himself from gaming exec who lost Waukegan casino bid (Chicago Sun-Times)
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