THE ILLINOIZE: Latest race counts and transparency problem...Inside the McConchie GOP takeover...How Kilbride went down...Durbin, Duckworth, Pritzker want Madigan out...State shutdown on the table?
November 6, 2020
EDAY +3
Good morning.
The Associated Press will likely call Pennsylvania for Vice President Joe Biden today, which would project him as President-Elect.
In Illinois, one congressional race is still uncalled. State Sen. Jim Oberweis leads Rep. Lauren Underwood (D-Naperville) by 628 votes. But, as I’ll explain later, is still far from decided.
Currently, 7 incumbents are trailing. Rep. Nathan Reitz (D-Steelville) and Rep. Monica Bristow (D-Alton) are likely done. Rep. Diane Pappas (D-Itasca), Rep. Grant Wehrli (R-Naperville), and Rep. Allen Skillicorn (R-East Dundee) are praying for mail-in ballots to go their way. Also, Rep. Mary Edly-Allen (D-Libertyville) trails by around 4,400 votes, but more on that below.
SOME RACES ARE STILL CLOSE
I’ve put together a spreadsheet for you to keep up with the latest numbers as they come in. Here’s the link. Obviously, I’m just one guy and I’m not refreshing every single jurisdiction on repeat and I plan to be out watching the vote count in DuPage County this afternoon, but it will give you a sense of where things stand at a given moment.
Here’s the link. (Also, please feel free to call me out on any mistakes. Again, I’m just a boy with a computer. patrick@theillinoize.com.)
I last put together numbers Tuesday night/Wednesday morning around 5:00 A.M. and the last update we got last night was from the Cook County Clerk after 9:00 P.M. Here’s how some races have changed:
Gotten closer:
Rep. Tom Morrison (R-Palatine) has lost ground. His lead went from 5,476 to 4,195 currently (-1,281).
Rep. John Cabello (R-Machesney Park) has had his lead fall from 812 to 358 votes (-454).
Rep. Deanne Mazzochi’s (R-Elmhurst) lead has shrunk from 5,326 to 5,021 votes (-305).
Rep. Brad Stephens’ (R-Rosemont) lead has shrunk from 6,884 to 6,585 votes (-299).
Rep. Amy Grant (R-Wheaton) has seen her lead shrink from 2,657 to 2,419 votes (-238).
Rep. Diane Pappas (D-Itasca) has cut into her deficit from 4,264 to 4,060 votes (+204).
Rep. Dan Ugaste (R-Batavia) has had his lead fall from 2,642 to 2,551 votes (-91).
Marty McLaughlin has lost marginal ground in his effort to replace Rep. David McSweeney (R-Barrington Hills.) McLaughlin led his Democratic opponent by 6,612 early Wednesday morning and now leads by 6,591 (-31).
Margin growing:
Sen. Robert Martwick (D-Chicago) saw his shocking 27 vote lead on Election Night grow to 747 last night (+720).
Rep. Terra Costa Howard (D-Glen Ellyn) has grown her lead from 3,845 votes to 4,380 votes (+585).
Rep. Anne Stava-Murray (D-Naperville) has increased her lead from 2,508 to 3,068 (+560).
Rep. Grant Wehrli (R-Naperville) has lost ground to Democratic challenger Janet Yang-Rohr. He was down 1,498 votes and now trails by 1,876 votes (-378).
Democrat Maura Hirschauer has grown her lead in the race to replace Rep. Karina Villa (D-West Chicago). Her lead went from 3,780 Election Night to 4,103 late as of late last night (+323).
Rep. Karina Villa (D-West Chicago) has increased her lead over Republican Jeanette Ward in the race to replace Sen. Jim Oberweis (R-Sugar Grove). Her lead has grown from 1,148 to 1,375 (+227).
Rep. Allen Skillicorn’s (R-East Dundee) saw his deficit to Democrat Suzanne Ness grow from 1,815 to 1,839 (-24).
No changes:
Rep. Joyce Mason (D-Gurnee) still leads Republican Dan Yost by 1,898 votes. (More on Lake County below.)
Rep. Mark Batinick (R-Plainfield) has an unchanged lead of 2,856 votes over Democrat Harry Benton.
Rep. Lance Yednock (D-Ottawa) continues to hold a 3,857 vote lead over Republican Travis Breeden.
Rep. Mary Edly-Allen (D-Libertyville) still trails Republican Chris Bos by 4,392 votes.
Rep. Monica Bristow (D-Alton) continues to trail Republican Amy Elik by 4,380 votes.
Rep. Katie Stuart (D-Edwardsville) is holding firm on a 4,052 vote lead over Republican Lisa Ciampoli.
Sen. Dave Koehler (D-Peoria) continues to leads Republican Mary Burress by 5,777 votes.
Rep. Steve Reick (R-Woodstock) continues to lead Democrat Brian Sager by 5,214 votes.
THE TRANSPARENCY PROBLEM
Because there were so many mail-in ballots this year, not every election jurisdiction has counted or, at least, reported any new votes in quite some time. Others don’t plan to release any new figures until NEXT TUESDAY.
Here’s what we know: Election authorities are supposed to report their number of uncounted mail-in ballots and number of mail-in ballots yet to be returned to the Illinois State Board of Elections. As of yesterday, many haven’t done that.
Among the “big” jurisdictions, Cook, DuPage, and Winnebago counties haven’t submitted their numbers. Neither have the City of Chicago or City of Rockford.
Will County has around 14,000 mail-in ballots yet to be counted. Kane County has around 1,500 to be counted, McHenry is sitting on around 1,100, and Madison County has around 300.
Here’s the kicker: Lake County, the third most populous county in the state, has around 69,000 mail-in ballots yet to be counted. That has a direct impact on the results of at least two legislative races and the yet-to-be called 14th District Congressional race between Jim Oberweis and Lauren Underwood.
County Clerk Robin O’Connor told us Wednesday Lake County will only post results twice, next Tuesday, and on the deadline for late-arriving mail-in ballots, Tuesday, November 17.
We are in the dark.
The other issue is that most election jurisdictions have not made details of remaining mail-in ballots that have yet to be returned available. We don’t know what Congressional district, what legislative district, or what precinct they come from. That would help give us (and, assuming, Republican and Democrat campaign arms) a better idea of what lead is safe and what isn’t. For all we know, Rep. Mary Edly-Allen’s (D-Libertyville) around 4,300 vote deficit could be erased with the stroke of a keyboard. There are 9 House Districts in Lake County, so it’s impossible to know how those 69,000 votes to be counted will break down.
We’re going to keep trying to get some clarity.
INSIDE McCONCHIE’S RISE TO SGOP LEADER
If Senator Dan McConchie (R-Hawthorn Woods) led a successful coup d'é·tat on Senate Republican Leader Bill Brady (R-Bloomington), the suburban lawmaker had co-conspirators from downstate in Sen. Jason Barickman (R-Bloomington) and Sen. Sue Rezin (R-Morris).
McConchie had quickly secured the necessary votes to overwhelm Brady within the caucus after two or three weeks of furious vote whipping, mainly by Barickman and Rezin.
I spoke with multiple sources aware of the conversations and negotiations that led to McConchie’s takeover of the GOP Leader spot in a vote Thursday.
HOW KILBRIDE WENT DOWN
Pre-primary, pre-pandemic, Supreme Court Justice Tom Kilbride appeared to be cruising to retention without much organized effort.
But what appears to be true isn’t always true.
Here’s a story this morning about the effort of former Illinois Republican Party Executive Director and Bruce Rauner campaign official Nick Klitzing, who started laying the groundwork for a campaign to defeat Kilbride’s retention shortly after Rauner lost re-election in 2018.
How did they knock off a Supreme Court justice? Tying him to House Speaker Michael Madigan, of course.
“The connection between Kilbride and Madigan is rock solid, and you don’t even have to explain it. Fair maps, term limits. It was all about money Madigan gave to Kilbride and Kilbride deciding on cases to Madigan’s advantage,” he said.
Also, how Klitzing’s late spending may have saved southern Illinois GOP Supreme Court candidate David Overstreet, who was being outspent and attacked on TV without response.
About Kilbride, his term will end at the beginning of December. But what happens next remains unclear.
A NAME TO WATCH: Appellate Judge Mary K. O’Brien is a former Democratic State Representative from Kankakee County who appointed to the Appellate Court in 2003. She’s relatively young (55), has campaign experience, is affable, and could be a potential replacement for Kilbride and could seek the seat in 2022. There is no rule, we understand, that the court couldn’t appoint Kilbride to his own vacant seat. We’ve heard no indication that he would seek to do that.
MADIGAN UNDER FIRE
Despite having a nearly unlimited war chest, House Speaker Michael Madigan is in position to lose seats in a year a Democrat will win the Presidential election handily in the state (Biden leads Trump by around 700,000 votes in the state as of early this morning).
Senator Dick Durbin said Wednesday Madigan should step aside as Democratic Party chairman, Governor JB Pritzker joined the chorus Thursday. Thursday evening, Senator Tammy Duckworth went farther, saying Madigan needed to go as DPI Chair AND House Speaker.
Madigan, though, says he’s not going anywhere.
Joking with a GOP operative last night, my friend asked me “how many times have we written Madigan’s obituary?”
ANOTHER SHUTDOWN LOOMING?
In his daily COVID-19 update Thursday, Governor JB Pritzker seemed to open the door to shutting down the state again as new cases of the coronavirus continue to skyrocket in Illinois.
The state reported 9,935 new cases yesterday and the state topped 10,000 deaths yesterday, as well.
Governor JB Pritzker threatened further mitigations were on the table Thursday, seemingly including rules similar to his stay-at-home order this spring.
“If others don’t change their behavior, we are going to experience a surge in hospitalizations much higher than we are now,” Pritzker said. “If the current trajectory continues, if our hospitals continue to fill up, if more and more people continue to lose their lives to this disease, we’re going to implement further statewide mitigations, which nobody, and I mean nobody, wants.”
You can imagine, though, the reaction from some downstate lawmakers was less than supportive.
Here’s our story on the Governor’s comments.
MEA CULPA
In Wednesday’s early morning edition of this newsletter, I flipped around the results of the graduated income tax referendum results. As of early this morning, 45.3% of voters supported the so-called “Fair Tax,” while 54.7% have voted no. Thanks to my old friend Mike Brooks for pointing out the error of my ways.
Governor Pritzker, by the way, unloaded on opponents of the referendum Wednesday.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY
Happy Birthday today to State Rep. Jay Hoffman. Former State Senator and current DuPage County Board Chairman Dan Cronin celebrates tomorrow. Both former State Senators David “Coach” Luechtefeld and Denny Jacobs celebrate Sunday.
ONE MORE THING
It’s been a long week for everyone.
But, I’d like to conclude this morning with a short message for both sides. Republicans: Joe Biden is going to win this election. He’s won it legitimately, there were no dirty tactics, no matter what the President may say. Here in Illinois, we’ve been counting late-arriving mail-in ballots for decades. The only thing new this year is that there are more of them, and that’s the same situation in Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Wisconsin, and North Carolina. Do not question the legitimacy of the election.
Democrats: Please do not believe that those who disagree with your view of the world and voted for someone else obviously makes them racist, mysoginistic, xenophobic scum. A lot of Republican voters don’t like Donald Trump’s rhetoric, his foreign policy, his Twitter feed, or any number of things. But, they believe that he will be more likely to support an agenda they do, whether it’s on taxes, trade, or his choices for the Supreme Court.
We can disagree without hating each other. Let’s remember our neighbor is our neighbor, no matter who he voted for.
Thanks for your support of The Illinoize this week. We’ve had so many positive comments and are so thankful that many of you utilized our Live Blog Tuesday (into Wednesday) and have been giving us our best week of clicks since we started this little rodeo.
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