THE ILLINOIZE: It's Primary Day...The party of Bailey...One-on-one with likely GOP nominee...Can Davis stay alive?...Dem legislators who need blood pressure meds today...Impact of Griffin departure
June 28, 2022
Good morning, Illinois.
It is finally primary Election Day in Illinois, some 15 weeks after it would usually take place in mid-March. The primary was moved back because the General Assembly was delayed getting legislative and congressional maps finalized, so here we are.
There are so many unanswered questions and so many possible scenarios awaiting us with tonight’s results. I’ll hit on some of those things below.
I’ll be on WGN-TV tonight from 7pm until they throw us out of the building providing analysis, bad jokes, and looking uncomfortable in makeup. If you can’t get channel 9 on your teevee, you can watch live at this link (per producer extraordinaire Jordan Muck…who is a total boss).
We’ll have a live blog up tonight at www.theillinoize.com headed up by my guy Ben Garbarek. I’ll try to drop in as much as I can.
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TABLE SET FOR BAILEY’S NOMINATION
By the end of the night, the Illinois Republican Party may belong to Darren Bailey.
Most polling indicates conservative downstate Sen. Darren Bailey (R-Xenia) will win the GOP nomination for Governor Tuesday night, setting up a fall battle between the most conservative GOP nominee in at least a century and one of the most progressive governors in a lifetime in Gov. JB Pritzker.
“We have the answers. We have the answers for prosperity. We have the answers for safety. We have the answers for life. We have the answers for good education. We have the answers to bring business back to Illinois and the answers for low taxes, but we’re not standing on them,” Bailey said. “We have to elect men and women with backbone and the fortitude to stand up for our values and take back our lives.”
Bailey flew around the state Monday as candidates crisscrossed the state trying to drum up energy and last minute voters. Venture capitalist Jesse Sullivan, who appears to have pulled into second place, rallied in Lombard Monday night, while Aurora Mayor Richard Irvin, who has faced a campaign collapse in recent weeks, held an event in suburban Cary.
The question will be if Bailey will…or can…moderate his message for suburban voters after winning the primary.
Read more here.
OUR EXCLUSIVE CONVERSATION WITH BAILEY
Darren Bailey can’t be accused of shying away from the issues he wants to talk about. But, in our one-on-one visit with the candidate last night in Des Plaines, you could sense a softer tone coming from the southern Illinois farmer, potentially indicating a change in direction for the fall campaign.
Here’s a portion of our discussion:
The Illinoize: We’re just a few hours before the polls open. By all indications, you’re going to win this thing, and let’s be fair, a lot of people blew off your campaign. They said you’re an out-of-touch southern Illinois hayseed. How did you do this?
Darren Bailey: We went to the people. I’ve stood up for the people as a State Representative, coming into office at the exact same time as JB Pritzker, coming in to the super minority in the Republican party. I began to realize with some of the people who came in with me, working people from southern Illinois, we began to realize what a mess [state government] was. We started standing up. We were standing up against our own establishment, calling out half the Republicans who voted to increase the gas tax. A lot of these fights took place in the Republican caucus meetings, out of view of the public. Then the lockdowns came. Deep down here, something didn’t feel right. A lot of people don’t realize this. I went to the House [GOP] leadership, the Senate [Republican] leadership, I went to the Illinois Republican Party, and I suggested we have an opportunity. I’ve never sued anyone in my life, I’m not an attorney. Let’s do something. I was turned down and refused by everybody. So, I prayed about it and decided to move forward with it and we gained notoriety when we won that lawsuit. Starting in July 2020, Cindy and I were traveling all over the state to these open schools, open business, open church rallies and we began to realize something’s going on. The reality is I’ve been up here for two years now. I’ve been in the communities. People are hungry for leadership and the irony is we were just trying to get the Republican party to stand up on its platform and they didn’t want to. People see someone willing to stand up and fight for them. I think that’s why the movement has continued to grow such as it has.
Illinoize: Trump lost Illinois by 17 points. I’ve argued maybe you start out with a 15-to-17 point disadvantage in the fall. Do you disagree with that and how do you overcome it?
Bailey: We’ll overcome anything with our hard work ethic, just exactly what we’ve been doing. Just another leg of the journey starts on Wednesday and we’ll be doing the same thing. Basically, by the time this summer is over with, high inflation, high gas prices, high food prices, high utility prices, the lack of fuel, the lack of food, the lack of energy, I think people are going to be ripe and ready for a change. I’m warning people ahead of time because I think something ugly is about to happen (economically.)
You can read our whole interview with Bailey at this link.
DAVIS V. MILLER, CASTEN V. NEWMAN
Two of the most watched congressional primaries in the country take place in Illinois today. In the new 15th district, Congressman Rodney Davis (R-Taylorville) faces Congresswoman Mary Miller (R-Oakland), who has a surge in support after a rally with former President Donald Trump Saturday but is also facing renewed scrutiny after a slip of the tongue made it appear she was making a racist comment.
In the 6th District, which covers portions of Cook and DuPage Counties, Congressman Sean Casten (D-Downers Grove) faces Congresswoman Marie Newman (D-LaGrange) in a race that has received far less attention after the tragic death of Casten’s teenage daughter earlier this month.
Polling indicates Davis holds a slight lead over Miller, but could be overtaken if word of Trump’s support reaches enough voters. The race appears to be a pure toss up as voters head to the polls this morning.
Insiders say Casten appears to be the favorite in the 6th District. We’ll be keeping an eye on these and many other races.
DEM LEGISLATORS ON THE HOT SEAT
There are always a handful of lawmakers that are sweating a primary, especially in a remap year. But there are a few Democrats (and a couple of Republicans) all in serious jeopardy of losing their seats.
Rep. Mike Zalewski (D-Riverside) was generally perceived to be safe from a challenge from former Board of Review and Cook County Board candidate Abdelnasser Rashid. Rashid has run to the left of Zalewski, who voted against the repeal of the parental notification of abortion bill and had close ties to former Speaker Michael Madigan. Rashid has raised significant money in recent weeks and both candidates are up on network TV in the primary. Most House Democrat sources feel as if Zalewski will hold on, but Rashid has become a tougher than expected opponent.
Rep. Kathleen Willis (D-Addison) was one of the first Democrats to challenge then-Speaker Michael Madigan for leadership in late 2020. She is facing some of those repercussions in the 2022 primary, being challenged by progressive Norma Hernandez of Melrose Park. Hernandez is a trustee at Triton College. She is backed by Congressman Chuy Garcia’s organization.
One of the most endangered incumbents for months has appeared to be Rep. Denyse Wang Stoneback (D-Skokie). She has been challenged by progressive consultant Kevin Olickal, who has been backed by Stoneback’s own Senator, Ram Villivalam (D-Chicago). Stoneback also employed for a time a former Evanston city official involved in a sexual assault scandal in the city park district.
Appointed Rep. Mike Kelly (D-Chicago), a Chicago firefighter, and appointed Sen. Eric Mattson (D-Joliet), a Joliet firefighter, are both facing challenges from the left. Kelly is being outworked, seemingly, by progressive Michael Rabbitt. Mattson’s insider-style appointment after the resignation of former Sen. John Connor has fired up progressives supporting Will County Board member Rachel Ventura.
GRIFFIN'S DEPARTURE WILL HURT
Lots of liberals on the admittedly down-to-earth platform of Twitter essentially sang “Na na hey hey” in the direction of Ken Griffin, Illinois’ richest person, who announced last week he was moving his business and assets to Florida.
Even though Griffin was an outspoken critic of Governor JB Pritzker, and his $50 million investment in Aurora Mayor Richard Irvin’s likely failed governor seems wasted, Griffin has provided hundreds of millions in both philanthropic contributions and income tax payments.
Griffin, who is worth in excess of $20 billion, has given $125 million to the Economics Department at the University of Chicago and around $20 million for Chicago’s Lakefront Trail. Griffin also pledged $125 million to the Museum of Science & Industry in Chicago, which is to rebrand itself in Griffin’s name. A spokesman for Griffin’s Citadel company says the billionaire has given over $600 million to charitable causes lifetime in Chicago.
State government will also likely be impacted by Griffin’s departure from the state. A company spokesman says Griffin has paid over $200 million in income taxes each of the last few years. The spokesman says that makes up for 1% of the total revenue the state draws from income taxes. With income tax revenue already expected to decline in the new fiscal year beginning July 1, that’s an additional blow for the state.
Don’t forget. Lots of updates today coming at www.theillinoize.com or on Twitter.