THE ILLINOIZE: Irvin and Bourne in...Republicans react...Dems criticize...Can a guy who votes as a Dem win a GOP primary?...Durkin...Wayne Rosenthal...Thurgood Brooks...
January 28, 2022
Good morning.
It’s 161 days to the June primary. It’s 294 days to the November general election. Tick. Tock.
I hope you’re better at your job than Big Ten basketball officials. But, you gotta make shots. That’s all I have to say about the strange double overtime Illinois game yesterday.
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As always, drop me a note at patrick@theillinoize.com. I want to hear your thoughts and concerns.
Let’s get to it.
IRVIN’S IN
Aurora Mayor Richard Irvin jumped into the Republican field for Governor yesterday, launching his campaign with a highly produced campaign video and apparently, ducking reporters at an MLK event in Aurora yesterday.
The video is great, don’t get me wrong. It’s the best thing we’ve seen from any candidate so far this cycle. Now Irvin has to define himself, because his opponents are already starting to define him as a Democrat in Republican clothing.
“Darren Bailey is the true conservative in this race and with the help of working people across the state, we will win this election and begin to reform Springfield and restore Illinois."
“After years of pulling Democratic primary ballots in years when Pat Quinn, Hillary and Joe Biden were top of the ticket, I am interested to hear what changed your mind on party affiliation.” -Gary Rabine
“[People] deserve a true conservative political outsider who can lead and make Illinois strong. I am the candidate who can save Illinois.” -Jesse Sullivan
You get the picture.
I’ve had plenty of people tell me Irvin has long been a Republican, is a former GOP precinct committeeman, and has some conservative policy victories in Aurora, our Democrat-heavy second largest city.
But don’t forget Bailey pulled a Democrat ballot in 2008, Sullivan volunteered for Democratic congressional candidate Colleen Callahan in 2008, and Rabine has donated money to a bunch of Democrats, including Ed Burke and Rahm Emanuel. So, let he who is without sin cast the first stone.
Save for Sullivan, none of them have the money to go on the air and define Irvin themselves, so you had better believe their comms people (if they’re worth a salt) are calling around trying to book them on every morning show from Paducah to the Quad Cities trying to lob as many bombs as they can.
CAN IRVIN WIN?
For what it’s worth, Republican insiders appear split on what Irvin’s entry into the race means.
I spoke to about a dozen current and former Republican lawmakers, operatives, and other insiders yesterday and was surprised at the varying opinions about the ticket.
“He can beat the Governor,” a former lawmaker said. “Voters don’t find Governor Pritzker’s story particularly compelling. He was born into enormous wealth and has never known the challenges Mayor Irvin has faced. [Pritzker is] a capable politician, but completely uninspiring.”
“We’re talking about a suburban elected official with deep, deep Democrat roots,” a conservative GOP elected official said. “He’s praised the work JB Pritzker has done as Governor. That’s a really hard sell to a primary electorate. Especially because GOP primaries can often become purity tests.”
And if Irvin can’t get through the primary, that leaves many Republicans concerned.
“I worry that he will lose and we will get Bailey,” an operative said. “Unfortunately, our purists in the primary set up our failure in the general. He can beat Pritzker. I just don’t know if he can get through the primary.”
The majority of GOP primary voters are now downstate, which happened for the first time in 2018. That’s a big haul for a Black guy from Aurora who is going to be called a “Democrat plant” for the next five months.
SOME OTHER NOTES
Where’s Avery? Irvin’s announcement video didn’t feature a peep from Rep. Avery Bourne (R-Morrisonville), his running mate for Lt. Governor. She was featured in some b-roll, but as someone with actual statewide policy chops, you want to get her involved ASAP. She’s smart, telegenic, well-spoken, and can speak to downstaters. Even if you didn’t want to use her in the main video, you could have absolutely put out a secondary LG video.
The video features some…odd…phrasing. Including saying “all lives matter,” which kind of became the rallying call in 2020 against the “Black Lives Matter” movement. But Irvin supported the BLM movement as recently as last year.
He told the story of being a decedent of slaves, but later in the video says “we must dare to dream of an Illinois that is free.” That’s rhetorical malfeasance.
I know its a bio video, but there are very few details about “cutting taxes,” “creating jobs,” and nothing past criticizing Pritzker for crime. This would be a good time to say something bold “We’ll hire 15,000 new state troopers.” If you don’t have any policy to stand on, make it strictly bio. The bio was the best part of the video.
The video is paid for by “Irvin for Illinois,” but the committee hasn’t been registered with the Illinois State Board of Elections yet.
Irvin is a defense attorney, so expect some oppo at some point about some bad dudes he represented.
He also got divorced last year, so don’t be surprised if there’s a researcher digging through court files already.
There is an anti-Irvin site up already. You may have guessed “Republicans against Irvin” isn’t registered with the Illinois State Board of Elections yet.
No in person announcement, no interviews, we even sent an e-mail to their main media address for the press release and a high resolution photo and got no response. (To be fair, the Pritzker campaign also ignored our request for a statement yesterday.)
DURKIN FOR IRVIN
House Republican Leader Jim Durkin sent an e-mail to his members yesterday confirming he’s supporting the Irvin/Bourne ticket.
“I wholeheartedly support Richard Irvin's campaign and will work to make him our nominee and our next Governor,” Durkin said in an e-mail to members yesterday sent on his behalf by House Republican campaign chief Jayme Odom. “I also want to congratulate our colleague and friend Avery Bourne on this historic launch and promise to support her in any way I can. Please join me in supporting this winning ticket of true leaders.”
Obviously, Durkin doesn’t want to get on the wrong side of Ken Griffin. He needs those dollars.
Don’t forget at least 8 or 9 members of his caucus are open Darren Bailey allies, so this will probably cause some frustration within parts of the House GOP caucus.
ROSENTHAL CHANGES GEARS
Former Rep. Wayne Rosenthal, who had previously announced a run for State Senate against incumbent Sen. Steve McClure (R-Springfield) told me last night he’ll announce today that he’s running for his old seat.
Rep. Avery Bourne (R-Morrisonville) can’t seek her House seat and the Lt. Governor position at the same time, so Rosenthal will run for the new 108th district. Fittingly, Bourne replaced Rosenthal in the House in 2015.
QUAD CITY PRIMARY HEATS UP
Thurgood Brooks, a Rock Island activist who lost a race for Mayor last year by around 220 votes out of around 5,000 cast, is jumping in the race for an open seat in the Illinois House.
Brooks announced yesterday he’ll seek the seat being vacated by Rep. Mike Halpin (D-Moline), who is seeking a seat in the Senate. Ironically, Halpin will face Rock Island Mayor Mike Thoms, who defeated Brooks last year.
Brooks will be considered the progressive in the race. Former Senate candidate Gregg Johnson and union official Jeff Deppe are also seeking the Democratic nomination, which should be a bitter fight.
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