THE ILLINOIZE: Illinois will lose a congressional district...who goes?...Inside the outmigration pattern...Pritzker punts on redistricting...Vaccine supply will exceed demand...Landlords want relief

April 27, 2021

Good morning.

Lots to get to this morning, so I’ll remind you we move to a paid subscriber model starting one week from today. You’ll get at least three newsletters a week, exclusive video content, breaking news alerts, and lots of other fun stuff only for subscribers. It’s only $7.99 a month or $75 a year.

If you aren’t interested in a paid subscription, you don’t have to do anything. You’ll still get one newsletter a week, but you won’t get all the goods. Just some of the goods. Good? Good.

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For now, let’s get to it.

FROM 18 TO 17

Let’s start with this: Illinois isn’t losing a congressional seat because it lost 7,893 people since 2010. It’s because, for the fourth decade in a row, population hasn’t kept up with growth in other parts of the country (i.e. Texas and Florida).

Meanwhile, Democrats in charge of the redistricting process confirmed they will continue toward passing redistricting maps before the June 30th date outlined in the state constitution, even though full census data won’t be available until at least August.

In a statement issued by Senate Redistricting Committee Chair Sen. Omar Aquino (D-Chicago) and Vice Chair Sen. Elgie Sims (D-Chicago), they continued to claim they will create a “diverse” map, but don’t say they’ll include an “accurate” map.

“We are reviewing the information released today by the U.S. Census Bureau and remain committed to working with our partners in Washington to ensure Illinois continues to receive the federal resources and support our communities need,” the statement read. “While the Census Bureau confirmed full redistricting information may not be released until September, we will not abandon our duty to craft a map by June 30 as required by the Illinois Constitution. As others seek to delay and distract, we are focused on gathering input from communities of interest across Illinois to create a fair map that reflects the diversity of our great state.”

Rep. Avery Bourne (R-Morrisonville), who sits on the House Redistricting Committee, says the American Community Survey sample, which it appears Democrats will base their maps on, isn’t accurate for redistricting.

“We have heard testimony that using the ACS data has the tendency to undercount rural populations, particularly in small towns,” she said. “If we’re seeing the population shifts in Illinois away from the rural parts of Illinois, it would not serve our smaller areas well if we use data that we know would skew the wrong direction from rural parts of the state.”

By the way, it appears the Democrats are aiming to pass the legislative map by May 31 (or maybe June 30), but the congressional map will probably wait.

DAVIS ON CHOPPING BLOCK?

“Democrats just don’t like the guy.”

That’s a text I got yesterday from a high-level Democrat about Congressman Rodney Davis (R-Taylorville).

Both Republicans and Democrats I spoke to yesterday after it became official that Illinois would lose a seat in Congress starting in next year’s election cycle alluded to the idea that Rodney Davis may be the odd man out as the state loses a representative.

Some think Davis may get drawn into a district with fellow Republican Congressman Darin LaHood (R-Peoria), while others think he could get drawn into a district with a different Republican, Congresswoman Mary Miller (R-Oakland).

It seems less likely that Democrats would just add more likely Democrat voters into Davis’ current district, there are plenty to be found in Madison and St. Clair counties, but they don’t seem to believe it will make the district safe enough for their party to beat an established incumbent. After all, Davis’ 13th District was drawn for a Democrat when he won it in 2012.

By the way, I played around with the Democrats redistricting website yesterday, and it is possible, actually, pretty easy to draw Davis, Miller, and Congressman Mike Bost (R-Murphysboro) into the same district. But another Democrat told me that move isn’t likely.

The other potential “odd man out” could be Congressman Adam Kinzinger (R-Channahon). He lives in Will County and his district forms a bit of a barrier between the suburbs and exurbs where they may need some votes. (For instance, they may try to draw Democratic Congresswoman Lauren Underwood’s west suburban and exurban district to the west to pick up some Democrats in Rockford.)

But, if Davis or Kinzinger get drawn out, they could jump to cause high profile Democrats some headaches. Davis could potentially run for Governor and Kinzinger could be a high-profile Senate candidate against Democrat Tammy Duckworth. So, we’ll see if Democrats want to have that fight.

THE REAL STORY ON WHY PEOPLE ARE LEAVING

7,893.

That’s the total drop in the state population between 2010 and 2020. It’s not that much.

That said, outmigration is a thing, but a sociologist and demographer from the University of Illinois says neither Republicans or Governor Pritzker are on accurate with their talking points on the issue.

Professor Cynthia Buckley says part of the decline comes from the reduction in immigrants that have come to the state in the past decade.

“Illinois and Chicago, in particular, remains a gateway city for international immigrants coming into the United States,” she said. “That’s where Illinois, for several decades, has been really focused in terms of their population growth. As we got a downturn in the last four years of the previous [administration], in international migration, it accelerates Illinois’ demographic disadvantage.”

Please take 10 minutes and read what she had to say. I think it’s really important.

PRITZKER PUNTS ON REDISTRICTING

Chicago media was in attendance at Governor JB Pritzker’s news conference in Aurora yesterday and they were pretty focused on the reapportionment data that was due out a few hours later, so the Governor basically got a free pass on why he’s seemingly abandoned his campaign pledge to veto any redistrict map drawn by politicians.

“This is a legislative endeavor, getting a redistricting map put together,” he said. “We’re certainly monitoring it. We want to make sure that it gets done right. But, it doesn’t come to the Governor until the legislature gets together and draws the map.

That’s a far cry from the words of candidate Pritzker in 2018.

The Governor has an event in Springfield this morning. I didn’t make the trip this week, but I hope Statehouse media will not let him off the hook if he keeps punting on why he’s so drastically changed his mind.

SPEAKING OF THE GOVERNOR…

Pritzker was asked about diminishing demand for the COVID-19 vaccine yesterday. He said while there’s been a lot of talk about vaccine hesitancy or vaccine deniers, whether among downstate Republicans or the African American community, hesitancy is on the decline.

“Vaccine hesitancy has diminished over time,” Pritzker said. “We’re seeing more and more that people are vaccine confident and, therefore, willing to get vaccinated.”

More on his comments from yesterday here.

LANDLORDS WANT EVICTION MORATORIUM RELIEF

David Roeder has a piece in the Chicago Sun-Times this morning on the struggles faced by landlords, especially people who own just a few units, during the months long eviction moratorium in the state.

For more than a year, apartment building owners haven’t been able to evict people for not paying rent. Gov. J.B. Pritzker imposed an eviction moratorium at the pandemic’s onset, contending that when everyone was being urged to stay home, it wasn’t good policy to take away the home. Fair reasoning, but what about now?

Corey Oliver has 145 apartments on the city’s South and West sides, areas where many people lost their jobs or had their hours cut. He figures about 60% of his tenants are in arrears on rent, but he said most of them he can work with.

The trouble, he said, is the 15% of his tenants who haven’t paid him a dime in months. “They don’t communicate. We don’t hear from them,” he said. Oliver said it’s not even possible to connect them to rental assistance help. Going that route would acknowledge a liability, and an indefinite gift of free accommodations sounds better.

“There is no recourse for a housing provider,” Oliver said. “We’re always the monsters because people say we just want people out. But we don’t want to evict people. The vast majority of building owners are mom-and-pop operations. The tenants have our cellphone numbers. We’re out there cutting the grass and doing our best to provide comfortable housing.”

The good news is there’s some relief for landlords coming in the American Rescue Plan, which will send direct payments to landlords to cover rent for folks who can’t make it up.

CHICAGO SUES INDIANA GUN SHOP

Chicago leaders have long maintained that many of the crimes committed in the city are with guns purchased in Indiana. Now the city is suing a Gary, Indiana gun shop. From the Tribune:

According to the suit, Westforth Sports, which is just 10 miles from the Chicago border, repeatedly broke federal gun laws in connection with dozens of sales, several of which resulted in federal criminal charges against alleged straw purchasers.

The family-owned shop, which has been in business for more than 50 years, was accused in the suit of ignoring many of the obvious signs of straw purchasing, including buyers making multiple purchases of the exact same model of gun, buying sprees over a short time period, large-volume purchases, cash payments and staggered visits to elude multiple-sale reporting requirements.

The store’s longtime owner, Earl Westforth, also ignored warnings from the U.S. Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives about suspicious purchases at his store, despite remedial training on how to spot the signs of trafficking, according to the suit.

Asked about the suit at an unrelated event Monday, Mayor Lori Lightfoot said research by the city and federal law enforcement partners has shown Westforth Sports is “selling thousands of crime guns every year.”

For the record, I’ve maintained for years that cutting down on straw purchases and getting illegal guns off the street is the first step to curbing gun violence. It doesn’t matter what law you pass on law-abiding gun owners, criminals are ignoring even the simplest of laws.

I’ve been in gun shops in Illinois and Indiana. Yes, it is easier to buy a gun there.

The next step is fixing the problem. Will this lawsuit do it? Probably not, but it may make a statement.

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