THE ILLINOIZE: How independents crushed GOP hopes in November...How does Illinois' economic situation really stack up?...What both sides are missing in the gun debate

January 24, 2023

Good morning, Illinois.

If you hadn’t seen the list of vanity license plates rejected by the Secretary of State, you should really check it out. Maybe new SoS Alexi Giannoulias, who is 42 years younger than his predecessor, will allow some more fun ones to get through. “GOT POOP” probably isn’t one of them.

The House is out. The Senate is in at 3. Though, I doubt they do anything of substance this week. There are no committees scheduled (or even organized) yet. The Governor talks downstate public transit at 10 in Decatur.

I’m offering a free seven day trial for you to to decide whether you would like to join us as a paid subscriber. We’ll be rolling out some new subscriber-exclusive features in the coming days. You won’t want to miss it.

I hope you’ll join us.

Let’s get to it.

CONSULTANT: INDEPENDENTS SUNK GOP IN 2022

Last month, we told you about a post-mortem poll by suburban Republican consultant Collin Corbett trying to pinpoint why the GOP took such a beating in November. His poll showed voters were most concerned about threats to democracy and abortion rights.

Now that final results from the general election are available, Corbett says actual data shows it was independents that sunk Republican candidates.

(Disclosure: Corbett and I have worked a couple of campaigns together, a firm he’s associated with does our polling, and we’re friends, even though he’s a White Sox fan.)

Statewide data isn’t available yet, so his firm analyzed local data, which was a little unclear. From his report:

Getting turnout data proved harder than expected. You can’t get the data statewide for still several more months, so we had to go to individual county & city election authorities, some of whom move more quickly than others, and a few who have head-scratchingly suspect data (we won’t name names). We then had to supplement the voter data with demographic information for each voter. Our poor data team needs a vacation after this project.

Here’s their raw data.

Some highlights:

• Statewide turnout was down 5% from 2018.

• Turnout among Republicans was even, especially outside Cook County. In the collar counties, Republican turnout was down 4%, and in the rest of the state it was down 2%.

• But, GOP voter turnout dropped by 10% in suburban Cook County and 13% in the city of Chicago.

• Turnout increased among independent voters. (6% increase in the city of Chicago, 3% increase in the collars, and 5% increase in the rest of the state.)

• Independents had a bigger impact than prior years. The independent vote share increased nearly 3% from 2018 to 2022.

• Corbett notes that is a 30% increase in the number of persuadable swing voters you typically see in an election.

“This crystalizes the problem for Republicans in 2022. Reaching the independent universe is difficult and expensive, because so few of these voters participate, so you end up having to contact huge numbers of people to find the handful who are actually going to vote,” Corbett wrote in his analysis. “This takes significant resources, the funding to go up on broadcast & cable TV and [can] dramatically increase your mail and digital advertising universes. Democrats had that funding in 2022. Republicans didn’t.”

The general perception leading out of election day was that female turnout likely ballooned in the wake of the Supreme Court Dobbs decision, but Corbett says female turnout actually dropped in 2022. Black and Hispanic voters showed “historically” low turnout, according to the analysis. It all adds up with the historically low support for GOP gubernatorial Darren Bailey and former President Donald Trump in the city of Chicago and suburbs.

But, it all came down to independents.

“2022 proved if you can’t win independents in Illinois, you won’t win elections,” Corbett said.

Now, the question for Republicans as they recruit for 2024 (a presidential election year is traditionally more difficult for the GOP), the question is: what kind of Republican candidate appeals to independents?

WHO IS RIGHT ABOUT ILLINOIS’ ECONOMIC SITUATION?

As I was sitting down last week with Comptroller Susana Mendoza, we discussed the improved financial condition in the state. There seem to be two schools of thoughts. Democrats in charge tell you things are on the up-and-up. There are some on the right that focus on the worst credit rating of any of the 50 states and an outlandish pension debt.

I was looking through the latest briefing from the bicameral, bipartisan Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability (COGFA) and Chief Economist Benjamin Varner had some interesting notes on the state of the economy.

“In 2021 the GDP of Illinois was $945.7 billion. This was the fifth largest economy in the U.S. behind California, Texas, New York, and Florida. Illinois’ economy has averaged growth of 3.5% per year since 1997. This is well below the country as a whole’s growth of 4.3% per year. Illinois ranked 42nd among the states for economic growth during this time period.”

While there is obvious improvement improvement, we’re still behind the pace of other states.

Cannabis revenue is down around $500,000 from the second quarter of FY22 to FY23 (Oct-Dec).

Legal sports wagering revenue fell slightly ($113 million to $111 million) from FY21 to FY22 (the fiscal year that ended June 30.) COGFA anticipates those revenues to grow.

The General Assembly repealed the roughly two cent per gallon inflation adjustment in the gas tax for the final six months of 2022. COGFA estimates that cost roughly $70 million in tax revenue (and didn’t provide a lot of relief for taxpayers.)

COGFA’s Eric Noggle also wrote that many of the state’s revenue sources are beginning to slow.

“After months of robust levels of growth for much of the fiscal year, two of the major State sources, personal income tax and sales tax receipts, experienced a noticeable slowdown in December,” Noggle wrote. “Personal income tax revenues grew a meager $13 million on a gross basis, or $9 million after the subtraction of non-general fund distributions. Sales tax gross receipts fell for the first time this fiscal year, falling $13 million from last December’s levels, or $56 million net. While this weaker performance is noteworthy, it will take a couple more months of data to see whether this is the start of a significant downward trend in these receipts, or if the slowdown is simply due to a timing element related to the reporting of receipts over the last month.”

Overall, though, the state’s general fund receipts are up over $1.7 billion dollars from last year.

Read the report here.

OPINION: BOTH SIDES TALKING PAST EACH OTHER IN GUN DEBATE

The debate over banning assault weapons and the ensuing legal battle are more in a long line of gun issues where both sides are talking past each other.

Let’s be clear: both sides have solid arguments for their cause. Pro-gun advocates are correct in asserting that the 2nd Amendment applies to modern firearms in the same way the 1st Amendment applies to radio, TV, and the internet. Gun control supporters are correct to point out that people have the right to attend an Independence Day parade, go to school, or enter a nightclub without the threat of rifle rounds ripping through their bodies.

Rep. Bob Morgan (D-Deerfield) represents suburban Highland Park, where a deranged punk slipped through the system, bought a high-powered rifle, and (allegedly) killed eight people at the community’s annual Independence Day parade. Morgan was part of that parade. He and his family were about to step off as they heard the gunshots from a couple of blocks away. He’s since led the charge to ban assault-style weapons.

Morgan has every right to believe what he believes and every right to attempt to change state law.

I like Bob Morgan. I think he’s a good man with honest intentions. But it’s becoming clearer and clearer he and other Democrats either don’t know or don’t care that nearly all gun owners in the state obey the law. Most of the crimes committed with guns are done by people who are already breaking the law.

Morgan recently tweeted that nobody uses an AR-15 for home protection. A simple Google search shows countless incidents where legal gun owners have protected their homes and families with the Armalite-style rifle.

The truth is, gun owners in Illinois not only go through a federal background check when buying their weapons, they also go through a separate Illinois Firearm Owner Identification (FOID) background check and a waiting period before they can make the purchase.

You can’t legislate away hate. You can’t legislate away evil. But penalizing legal gun owners for the actions of those who break the law is punitive. It would be akin to banning cars because there are too many drunk drivers.

What gun rights supporters refuse to accept is that it’s too easy for people who shouldn’t have guns to get them. Time after time, whether in Highland Park, Aurora, or Uvalde, TX, mentally ill people or people with criminal records slipped through the cracks and were able to purchase guns. Gun rights supporters remain steadfast in their belief that having a magazine that can hold up to 100 rounds is essential in protecting their 2nd Amendment rights. It flies in the face of logic.

Gun control supporters are attacking those who own rifles instead of working to end handgun violence, which kills far more people in Illinois than assault rifles do. Democrats, in this case, are unwilling to push prosecutors on their side, specifically Cook County State’s Attorney Kim Foxx, to seriously prosecute gun crimes.

Pro-gun advocates are completely unwilling to talk about ways to keep stolen guns, ghost guns, or “straw purchase” guns off the streets.

There’s a stunning lack of interest from both sides in having serious conversations about ways to stop violence on our streets. Do some guns and magazines need to be limited? Probably. Do some laws need to be strengthened to keep criminals off the street? Definitely. Can we keep guns out of the hands of people who shouldn’t have them without treating every gun owner like a war criminal? Absolutely.

Like most things in politics, an all-or-nothing approach doesn’t help anyone. Progress is only made when the two sides start talking to each other instead of shouting past each other.

Nobody is taking that step yet.

MEET THE FRESHMEN

We started last week introducing you to Sen. Paul Faraci (D-Champaign). We intended to introduce you this morning to Sen. Erica Harriss (R-Glen Carbon), the only new Senate Republican who hadn’t previously served in the House. I texted her yesterday morning about talking and she responded that she would be “happy to help.” Senate Republican staff then declined to make her available and told us last night they would only respond to “written questions.” So, yeah.