THE ILLINOIZE: GOP to Bailey: "less Joel Osteen and more CEO"
July 12, 2022
Good morning, Illinois.
After being down for the count most of last week with the COVID, it’s going to take more than a little bug to keep me from you on a Tuesday morning, especially just 119 days to the General Election. As the great Turnpike Troubadours once sang “I ain’t goin’ anywhere at all, I’m about to hit my stride.”
I’m filling in again for Jim Leach on WMAY in Springfield this afternoon. I’m scheduled to be joined by new Illinois Supreme Court Justice Lisa Holder White. After some jamoke tried to convince me Donald Trump would be reinstalled as President BEFORE the 2024 election, you may want to listen today just to hear the veins on my forehead popping. Listen live here from 4-6pm.
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Let’s get to it.
“LESS JOEL OSTEEN AND MORE CEO”
Some media types in the state have already gone out of their way to write off Sen. Darren Bailey (R-Xenia), the GOP nominee for Governor, as a candidate who can’t win in November.
While I’ve laid out my opinion that Bailey needs to moderate his tone and message to be taken seriously, it isn’t clear yet if he’s playing a game of addition or subtraction for the November campaign.
Bailey, of course, has been dragged by Chicago media for a gaffe calling on the public to “move on” after the mass shooting in Highland Park last week. His pro-gun, pro-life, southern Illinois mantra leaves many Republicans concerned Bailey won’t be able to get himself into a position to compete. But Republicans of all stripes say Bailey can compete if he cleans up his message.
“He needs to be a little less Joel Osteen and a little more CEO,” said former Illinois Republican Party Chairman Pat Brady, who was affiliated with Gary Rabine in the GOP primary. Osteen is a popular, yet controversial, televangelist. “He needs to realize that if a Republican doesn’t include moderate Republicans, he’s only going to get 30% of the vote in the general.”
Rep. Tim Butler (R-Springfield), who endorsed Richard Irvin in the GOP primary, says he believes Bailey can still win the general election, but he has to act like a Governor first.
“He’s at the top of the ticket now. He is responsible for uniting the party, not alienating half the party,” Butler said. “ All Repulicans want to win in November, and we know the path to success is through the suburbs. Bailey needs every Republican for us to be successful and it’s his job now to make sure that happens.”
Brady agreed that Bailey needs to focus his efforts north.
“I would have him spend everyday the balance of the campaign north of I-80 talking taxes, inflation, gas prices, and crime,” he said. “These are solutions only Republicans are going to talk about, not Democrats.”
It isn’t clear yet if Bailey has taken steps to ease tensions with either legislative caucus. A spokesperson for Senate Republican Leader Dan McConchie (R-Hawthorn Woods) said the two men have spoken since the election, but didn’t go into any details. A spokesperson for Durkin did not respond to our request. Durkin may be the tougher nut to crack as Bailey’s legislative allies, the so-called “Eastern Caucus,” often create some headaches for Durkin. Bailey is also being supported by a PAC operated by right-wing radio host Dan Proft, who has attacked Durkin repeatedly, challenged his members, and even tried to take out the leader in a primary a few years ago.
One of Bailey’s House allies, Rep. Dan Caulkins (R-Decatur) says Bailey’s key to success is simple.
“Stay on message,” Caulkins said. “Governor Pritzker is the most radical governor in the country and it gives Darren lots of issues to talk with voters about.”
Bailey’s campaign did not return a request for comment last night.
Bailey’s fundraising, messaging, and media coverage will play a key role in whether he can give Pritzker a run for his money in November.
PRITZKER 2024?
I said on election night that his speech covered live on TV was more of a kickoff for a 2024 presidential campaign than a 2022 gubernatorial speech. It appears others are catching on.
Crain’s Chicago Business wrote yesterday that Pritzker looks like “someone with presidential ambition.”
A couple of weeks or so after visiting New Hampshire and one-upping President Joe Biden (intentionally or not) with a rousing defense of abortion rights that made national news, Pritzker grabbed the national spotlight again yesterday.
The Democratic governor was the first guest on Jake Tapper’s “State of the Union” show Sunday morning on CNN. And he did absolutely nothing to cool potential interest from his party about a future potential candidacy for 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.
On guns, for instance, while calling for a national ban on assault weapons and large-capacity firearms, he said “red flag” laws to keep guns out of the hands of troubled young men and others with problems wouldn’t work unless a family member steps up to report problems.
For the record, a Pritzker spokesperson said last week the Governor is the only thing Pritzker is running for.
LIPINSKI NOT RUNNING
I have heard rumblings over the last few days that former Congressman Dan Lipinski was potentially planning to launch an independent run for the new 6th Congressional District. He put those rumors to rest yesterday.
As we head into the midterm elections, only 13% of Americans say they are “satisfied with the way things are going in the U.S.,” the second-lowest percentage in the 43 years that Gallup has been asking this question. President Joe Biden’s job approval rating continues to decline and has fallen under 40%, according to FiveThirtyEight, while the Democratic Party’s approval stands only slightly higher at 43%, YouGov notes. But the only alternative on most Americans’ ballots this fall will be a standard-bearer of the Republican Party, which has an even more dismal approval rating under 41%.
This is what prompted me to consider a run for Congress as an independent in Illinois’ 6th Congressional District after serving 16 years in the House as a Democrat. More than 35 unpaid volunteers joined the “Draft Dan” campaign and worked hundreds of hours collecting signatures from Villa Park to Tinley Park. On Saturday, they delivered enough signatures to qualify me for the ballot. I am humbled by, and very thankful for, the tremendous support. However, after careful consideration I have decided to forgo a run this year. Instead, I will focus my attention on helping build the emerging “Independents Movement.” I already have had discussions with U.S. Rep. Adam Kinzinger about teaming up in this effort.
A lone independent voice in Congress could be good for the district and have a positive impact on the country, but an Independents Movement that could bring about a sea change in American politics is even more vital. The movement is growing, and perhaps in 2024, two years before America’s semiquincentennial, we will see a “Spirit of ’24″ in which independents revolutionize our failing party system and put our country back on the right track.
Lipinski referred us to the column when we had questions for him.
We’re told Lipinski actually pulled a Democratic ballot in the June 28 primary, so he wouldn’t be able to run as an independent anyway.
CONGRATULATIONS
Congratulations are in order to Governor Pritzker’s campaign spokesperson, Natalie Edelstein, who was engaged over the weekend. Her new fiancé, Will Jarvis, a producer for the “Click Here” podcast with longtime NPR host Dina Temple-Raston, proposed in Natalie’s hometown in California surrounded by family and friends. “It was perfect,” she texted me yesterday. Congratulations to the happy kids.
CONGRATULATIONS, PART 2
Congratulations to Darren Bailey’s campaign manager Jose Durbin and his wife, Gabriela, who welcomed their first child last Wednesday (The day after the primary! Dad had a heck of a week.)
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