THE ILLINOIZE: Free Subscriber Edition...Bailey can't help himself...Legislative Dems looking to hit GOP with "class warfare"...There will be debates (we think.)...What poll is Salvi talking about?
August 19, 2022
Good morning, Illinois.
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Governor JB Pritzker will be at the Union League of Chicago at 11:30 this morning as he receives the American Council of Engineering Companies of Illinois Infrastructure Champion Award. The Bailey campaign has not released a public schedule.
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Let’s get to it.
DARREN BAILEY REALLY DOESN’T LIKE CHICAGO, DOES HE?
From our story up on the website this morning…
In what should have been a prime opportunity for GOP gubernatorial candidate Sen. Darren Bailey (R-Xenia) to verbally smack around incumbent Governor JB Pritzker, instead, Bailey lost the message…again.
After previously walking back statements calling Chicago a “hellhole,” the southern Illinois farmer doubled down twice, referring to the city as a “hellhole” again and defending the statement in a media gaggle afterward.
During his Republican Day speech at the annual rally on the Director’s Lawn, Bailey imprudently jumped right back into his red meat talking points. Interestingly, the statement only received a smattering of applause from a few hundred people in attendance.
Moments later, he blamed Democrats for the problems in the city.
“Chicago, that once great city, well it didn’t become a hellhole just because of Lori Lightfoot and Kim Foxx (the Cook County State’s Attorney),” Bailey said. “Starting with J.B. Pritzker, our leaders are all in cahoots. They’re knee-deep in corruption. And they don’t care about the working people like you and I. They’ve proven that.”
Bailey didn’t mention the City of Chicago population is 2.7 million people, about 21% of the population of the entire state.
Bailey first used the term in a TV debate in late May, when he said the city is a “a crime-ridden, corrupt, dysfunctional hellhole.” He doubled down on the accusation days later on the way to winning the GOP nomination.
In a media gaggle after the rally Thursday Bailey doubled, tripled, and quadrupled down on the statement.
Bailey was asked if he really believes most Chicagoans view their city as a hellhole. "Actually, I believe they do," he told the assembled media. "Because it's unsafe."
“Chicagoans deserve better. I call it out, friends, and you know that,” he kept digging. “When was the last time Chicago experienced a night without a shooting? Do you know? It’s been a while, it’s been a long time. It’s time to restore sanity, and common sense, integrity, and safety on the streets.”
(The last time appears to be sometime in 2020, according to reports.)
The Pritzker campaign was quick to seize on the comments.
"Any person who repeatedly disparages the economic engine of the state, while also spewing racist, sexist, homophobic, and hateful views, doesn't deserve to hold a position of leadership here or anywhere,” a Pritzker campaign spokeswoman said.
Bailey’s campaign is not drawing rave reviews from many Republicans, including some operatives.
A Republican operative said this week “It’s no wonder no-one has faith in the Bailey campaign. It’s the most incompetent statewide campaign in history,” the operative said on the condition of anonymity. “I hope Richard Uihlein is happy.”
Numerous Republicans say privately with Pritzker’s high negatives, Bailey still has a chance to right the ship. They also say they’re doubtful the campaign can clean up its unforced errors in the next two-and-a-half months.
DEMOCRATS LOOKING FOR NEW LINE OF ATTACK?
When Governor JB Pritzker’s campaign attacked Sen. Darren Bailey for receiving federal farm subsidies it may have showed Democrats’ hand in messages they’re testing against multiple Republican opponents across the state.
Top Republican operatives tell The Illinoize Democrats have been polling in their district to test negative messages against GOP candidates on issues related to hypocritical spending, like farm subsidies. Dems then point out Republicans refused to support a handful of legislative reform packages aimed at helping working families.
The operative said they tested the same attacks Democrats were looking into and showed the GOP may be vulnerable on the topics.
In fact, outside of gun issues, which Republicans are losing terribly on poll tests, the operative said the issues worked very well for Democrat candidates with voters.
The operative says it may provide a new lane for Democrats, even if gun issues quiet down as fury over the Highland Park shooting diminishes.
“What do you talk about if you’re a Democrat? You can’t talk about jobs, you can’t talk about the economy, you can’t talk about inflation, because you’re weak on those issues Voters trust Republicans,” the GOP operative said. “If you want to talk about economic issues, it leaves you with this class warfare concept of being for workers and Republicans aren’t for workers. And that’s a natural lane for their union base anyway.”
So, expect to hear a lot about farm subsidies, federal pandemic business loans, known as PPP, or any number of government dollars a candidate has received for their work.
A Democratic operative says the line of questioning makes sense.
“Republicans are so hypocritical voting against COVID aid to states and crop insurance that it should be easy for us to point out the disconnect,” a top Democratic operative said. “They may think they’ve got the angle on working families because of Trump and his blue collar appeal, but these are still Democratic voters, sometimes for generations.
But Republicans think Democrats are trying to find a boogeyman.
“Trying to paint Darren Bailey as a rich guy probably isn’t going to play,” the Republican said. “They’ve created this whole impression that if you’re from downstate, you’re a hick. You can’t then say that he’s wealthy. The challenge is, you don’t have a Rauner at the top of the ticket to be that wealthy fat cat. Ken Griffin leaving the state means you can’t blame it all on Griffin. It’s a message in search of a villain.”
House Democrats declined to comment on the story. Senate Democrats and the Governor’s office did not respond to a request for comment.
DEBATES HAPPENING?
Get the popcorn because it looks like JB Pritzker and Darren Bailey will share a stage.
I’ve often said debates matter little in this day in age, but with as much as the Governor and his GOP challenger seem to despise each other, we could be in for some fun.
Pritzker’s campaign announced yesterday it had accepted two debate invitations for the fall, one from WMBD, AARP Illinois, and Illinois State University on October 4 and another from WGN-TV (and other Nexstar stations in the state) on October 18.
The Bailey campaign did not respond to a request on which debates they have responded to, though the candidate insinuated he would attend an NBC Chicago debate the Pritzker campaign had passed on.
WGN-TV’s rockstar political producer Jordan Muck told me last night the Bailey campaign had not yet committed to their debate on October 18.
SALVI’S INTERESTING LINE
At yesterday’s Illinois GOP State Fair breakfast, U.S. Senate candidate Kathy Salvi said there was independent polling showing her within striking distance.
It was interesting to hear her say that because there has been very little public polling in the race so far. The Real Clear Politics polling average has no Illinois results and the 538 poll database only has one poll from July showing U.S. Senator Tammy Duckworth up by 9 points. Numerous pollsters have questioned the results of that survey, hitting just before a person chose not to report on it.
I asked the Salvi campaign for specific polls the candidate referred to, but we did not receive an answer.
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