THE ILLINOIZE EXCLUSIVE: Pritzker, Duckworth, Democrats dominate new poll...Uihlein back in the game for Bailey...

August 30, 2022

Good morning, Illinois.

We'll get to our usual opening down below, but some breaking news to begin this morning:

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EXCLUSIVE: PRITZKER LEADS BAILEY BY 18

It appears Governor JB Pritzker is well on his way to re-election. In a new poll exclusive to The Illinoize, Pritzker leads conservative Republican opponent Sen. Darren Bailey (R-Xenia) by 18 points.

The statewide poll was conducted Thursday through Sunday by McHenry County-based firm Victory Geek, sampling 512 voters using both automated and live phone calls. The margin of error is ±4.3%

The poll shows Pritzker at 56%, Bailey at 38%, and 6% undecided or committed to a third party candidate.

Pritzker has a +16 favorability rating, with 55% approving of his job performance and 39% with an unfavorable opinion of him. 6% of respondents were unsure. Pritzker’s job approval has improved since a November poll from The Illinoize, showing him with a 50% to 44% favorable/unfavorable rating.

Bailey’s favorability is -23, with 26% favorable, 49% unfavorable, and 25% unsure of him. His numbers in Cook County are worse, with 66% unfavorable and 13% favorable (-53).

Pritzker leads Bailey 67%-24% in Cook County and 68%-29% in the suburbs. Bailey leads in the rest of the state 49%-43%. Pritzker leads with women by 20 points, 57% to 37%.

DUCKWORTH WITH COMFORTABLE LEAD ON WIDELY UNKNOWN SALVI

Our new poll shows incumbent U.S. Senator Tammy Duckworth with a wide lead on Republican challenger Kathy Salvi.

The statewide poll was conducted Thursday through Sunday by McHenry County-based firm Victory Geek, sampling 512 voters using both automated and live phone calls. The margin of error is ±4.3%.

Duckworth, who is seeking re-election for the first time after defeating incumbent Sen. Mark Kirk in 2016, has largely made a name for herself in Washington on issues involving the Americans with Disabilities Act and other armed forces issues. She also gave birth while in office.

As a U.S. Army helicopter pilot flying a mission over Iraq in 2004, Duckworth’s chopper was hit by a rocket propelled grenade, leading to the loss of both of her legs.

Duckworth leads Salvi, a former congressional candidate and attorney from Lake County, 58% to 35% with 7% undecided.

Salvi, who failed in a primary run for congress in 2006, was a late entrant into the U.S. Senate race and defeated a group of poorly known and underfunded candidates. She is a longtime pro-life activist, and wife of former Rep. Al Salvi, who ran for Secretary of State and U.S. Senate.

Salvi is an unknown commodity to many Illinoisans, according to our polling. Just 26% of voters surveyed have any kind of opinion about her. 11% say they have a favorable opinion and 15% have an unfavorable opinion. 74% are unsure. 77% of downstaters are unsure of who Salvi is.

Meanwhile, Duckworth has a 52% favorability and a 30% unfavorable rating (+22, higher than Pritzker), with 18% unsure. Duckworth is even above water downstate, with 42% favorable and 35% unfavorable. 23% of downstaters are unsure.

In the head-to-head matchup, Duckworth leads in Cook County 73%-17%, in the suburbs 66%-31%, and the two women are tied at 46% downstate. Duckworth leads 62%-25% among moderates.

DEMOCRATS LEADING BIG IN SOS, TREASURER RACES

In two races Republicans felt they had a chance to defeat Democratic opponents, hopes of the first GOP statewide win since 2014 may be slipping away.

Many Republicans believed Rep. Dan Brady (R-Bloomington) could defeat former Illinois Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias in the race for the open Secretary of State’s office being vacated by Jesse White. Brady is a prolific retail politician and Giannoulias has baggage surrounding his family’s failed bank.

But, Giannoulias’ fundraising advantage and Brady’s cash struggles in the current political environment appear to be hurting the Republican’s struggles.

In the poll conducted by The Illinoize, Giannoulias leads Brady 55%-37% with 8% of voters undecided.

The statewide poll was conducted Thursday through Sunday by McHenry County-based firm Victory Geek, sampling 512 voters using both automated and live phone calls. The margin of error is ±4.3%.

Giannoulias leads Brady 70-23% in Cook County and 66%-27% in the suburbs. Brady leads Giannoulias 48%-42% downstate. Giannoulias leads by 12% among men and by 24% among women.

Rep. Tom Demmer (R-Dixon) joined the failed Griffin/Irvin slate in the primary, but faced no opposition in the primary. A longtime legislator and decent fundraiser, Republicans hoped Demmer could hold his own against incumbent Treasurer Mike Frerichs.

In our poll, Frerichs leads Demmer by 21 percentage points, 54%-33%. 13% of respondents were undecided.

Frerichs leads Demmer 72%-18% in Cook County and 62%-26% in the suburbs. Demmer holds a 43%-42% lead downstate.

A Demmer spokesman attempted to push back on the results and discredit the poll, calling it “highly questionable” and “cheap clickbait.” We invited the Demmer campaign to provide an internal poll and they did not respond.

Frerichs, meanwhile, told The Illinoize last night he’s “not focused on polls,” but on doing his job.

ISSUES FAVOR DEMOCRATS, REPUBLICANS SAY IT’S TOO EARLY

Fewer than two months out from a mass shooting at an Independence Day Parade in suburban Highland Park killed seven paradegoers, guns are the top issue among Illinois voters, according to a new poll from The Illinoize.

The statewide poll was conducted Thursday through Sunday by McHenry County-based firm Victory Geek, sampling 512 voters using both automated and live phone calls. The margin of error is ±4.3%

According to respondents, 16% say guns are their top issue headed into the November election. 15% say the economy is their top issue and 12% say abortion. Crime, taxes, and inflation each received 10% of responses.

In numerous polls, guns appeared to be an issue boosting Democrats and hurting Republicans, though some GOP operatives believed fervor for gun reform would die down before the November election.

The issues are helping to buoy a large group of Democratic candidates, which is no surprise to Democratic consultant Tom Bowen.

"You don't need a poll to tell you Republicans are in trouble up and down the ballot in Illinois,” said Bowen. “Extremists policies on banning abortion, opposing lowering drug prices for seniors, and denying that Joe Biden won the 2020 election don't sell here."

The generic ballot for legislative seats showed Democrats with a 21-point advantage, but top Republicans aren’t concerned.

“Ask GOP nominee for Governor Mayor Richard Irvin what he thinks about early polls,” said former Illinois Republican Party Chairman Pat Brady. “Nobody, and I mean nobody, is focused on these races right now.”

With Republicans trailing badly in each statewide race, GOP operatives may hope their candidates can change the narrative as soon as possible.

You can view all of our poll results here.

UIHLEIN JUMPS BACK IN

Conservative donor Richard Uihlein appears to have made amends with the Darren Bailey campaign after previously pulling his support from Bailey’s campaign.

Uihlein, the paper products magnate, gave Bailey’s campaign around $10 million during the primary but had yet to contribute after Bailey won the GOP nomination in late June.

Uihlein came through with an additional $1 million contribution reported Monday.

It could be a sign Uihlein is willing to invest heavily into Bailey’s campaign, but Bailey continues to trail incumbent JB Pritzker’s campaign war chest by more than $50 million. Bailey had not received a contribution larger than $50,000 since winning the nomination.

Read more here.

BEFORE WE GO

I was on WLS with Steve Cochran yesterday morning. You can hear that here.

Our Livestream and podcast returns tomorrow at noon on our YouTube, Facebook, and Twitter pages. We’ll talk to Sen. Scott Bennett (D-Champaign) and longtime Chicago Tribune columnist Eric Zorn who now writes his own little corner of newsletter land here on Substack.

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