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THE ILLINOIZE: Exclusive poll for The Illinoize: Davis leads Miller by a thread, but Trump may change everything...Republicans want to unseat Democrat in suburban district...
June 21, 2022
Good morning, Illinois.
Welcome to the final week of the 2022 primary season.
I talked about a few of my five open seats that I’m watching with Steve Cochran yesterday on WLS in Chicago. Had a great time talking politics with him, as always, and am glad to see another person in media who wants to see a little less fist fighting between the right and left (or the right and far right and left and far left) and more getting things done. Here’s our conversation.
I’ll be filling in Thursday and Friday this week on the WMAY Morning Show in Springfield from 6am-9am. So, I’ll need a direct injection of caffeine to do my first morning show shift in something like 10+ years. I’m going to do a little primary crash course over the two shows and try to stack in conversations with as many candidates as humanly possible. Set your alarm if you’re in Springfield (92.7 FM) or the alarm on your iPhone to listen online here.
If you are enjoying our content, we’ll have plenty more for you on the Tuesday election as the week goes on. I hope you’ll consider becoming a paid subscriber. It’s just $9.99 o $99 per yar
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Let’s get to it.
DAVIS LEADS MILLER BUT TRUMP VISIT COULD CHANGE EVERYTHING
In a new poll this morning, exclusive to The Illinoize, Congressman Rodney Davis (R-Taylorville) leads Congresswoman Mary Miller (R-Oakland) in the member vs. member 15th Congressional District primary by just three points with one week to go before Election Day. But Davis’ lead could be tenuous with a trip to Illinois planned for the weekend by former President Donald Trump.
513 respondents took the automated poll between Wednesday and Sunday last week, and it was conducted by McHenry-based firm Victory Geek. The Illinoize paid for the poll independently and it was not commissioned or cleared by any candidate, committee, or third party before the poll was conducted or released.
Davis leads Miller 38% to 35% with 27% of voters undecided. If forced to choose between a candidate, Davis leads Miller 51% to 49%.
This weekend’s event with former President Donald Trump endorsing Miller could be the nail in Davis’ coffin. We asked voters if they knew Trump would endorse Miller this weekend, 47% said they would support Miller and 39% would support Davis.
By the way, if you’re wondering how we broke up the district into regions, here’s a map:
A top Republican strategist not affiliated with either Davis or Miller said the poll combined with the Trump event is bad news for Davis.
“Davis' best hope is the Miller team may not be promoting the event as hard as they should,” the consultant said. “So far, that actually seems plausible. The Miller campaign seems to be expecting the event to be enough and the word to spread organically.”
It also wouldn’t be the first time people thought Davis was bound for defeat and ended up pulling it out in the end.
REPUBLICANS SEEKING SUBURBAN 6TH DISTRICT SPLIT ON AGE RESTRICTIONS FOR GUN SALES
Whichever Republican is chosen by voters in the southwest and west suburban 6th congressional district next week, they will face a fundraising disadvantage to an incumbent Democrat and a map drawn to elect a Democrat to the seat.
That leads some to believe a more moderate position on guns, especially in the aftermath of a school shooting in Texas, may help a Republican win the district.
Rob Cruz of Oak Lawn, who owns a construction firm, says he’s open to discussing raising the age to buy firearms to 21.
“I’m not sure anymore if an 18-year-old kid should be buying a firearm without their parental consent. You can’t have a concealed carry [permit] if you’re 18-years-old. You have to be 21 to have that weapon and concealed carry with it,” Cruz said. “I think parents need to sign off on kids having weapons in their houses and be a little accountable if something [like the 18-year-old Texas school shooter) were to happen.”
Gary Grasso, an attorney and Mayor of Burr Ridge said he would be willing to discuss age limits on owning high powered rifles.
“A discussion has to happen regarding age of someone being able to own an AR-15, or go in and buy one on their [18th] birthday. We have restrictions. We restrict people with all kinds of licenses, we can preserve, and I do defend the second amendment, whether you’re a Democrat or a Republican, and we have a right to protect ourselves,” Grasso said. “But that right should be discussed in the context of should an 18-year-old be able to buy an AR-15, and I’m more than willing to engage in the discussion on that.”
Two other major GOP candidates in the race say they oppose further restrictions on gun ownership.
Scott Kaspar, an attorney from Orland Park
“We have the laws on the books. It’s a matter of enforcing them. It’s about keeping the guns away from repeat offenders, it’s about keeping them away from people who have mental health issues, and its a matter of protecting our schools.”
opposes a parents permission to obtain a gun between the ages of 18-21 o.
“We have the laws on the books. It’s a matter of enforcing them,” Kaspar said. “It’s about keeping the guns away from repeat offenders, it’s about keeping them away from people who have mental health issues, and its a matter of protecting our schools.”
Air Force Veteran and Orland Park Mayor Keith Pekau, says he opposes an expansion of red flag laws and making background checks universal.
“It’s a violence problem, it’s a criminal problem, and we need to focus on violence and criminals, not on law abiding gun owners. Everything that I have seen is [people] don’t even understand what [Congress is] proposing because they don’t understand what they’re saying. It’s easy to say ban assault weapons, but what does that mean? Nobody can define what an assault weapon is.”
Both leading Democrats in the field, Congressman Sean Casten (D-Downers Grove) and Congresswoman Marie Newman (D-LaGrange) have strongly supported gun control packages. Casten continues to lead fundraising in that primary.
The new 6th District runs from Orland Park and Tinley Park to Elmhurst including all or parts of communities like Oak Brook, Downer’s Grove, Lisle, Burr Ridge, Bridgeview, and Oak Lawn. President Biden won the district by around 11% in 2020, and Governor Pritzker won it by under 6 percentage points in 2018. That indicates a likely toss up district in November.
To view our conversations with 6th district candidates, watch below or click here:
LETTER THREATENS KINZINGER’S FAMILY
This disgusts me. Via The Hill:
Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.) on Sunday shared a death threat his family received over his participation in the House select committee’s investigation of the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection.
Kinzinger took to Twitter to share the letter that was mailed to his home and addressed to his wife, Sofia Boza-Holman.
The letter threatened harm to the Illinois Republican as well as his wife and child.
He warned of the possibility of “violence in the future” but told ABC’s “This Week” host George Stephanopoulos that he isn’t worried about the threats to him.
“I’m not worried personally. … It threatens to execute me as well as my wife and 5-month-old child,” he said.
“I’ve never seen or had anything like that. It was sent from the local area. I don’t worry, but now that I have a wife and kids it’s a little different. There are people that — there’s violence in the future, I’m going to tell you. And until we get a grip on telling people the truth, we can’t expect any differently.”
Kinzinger, who along with Rep. Liz Cheney (Wyo.) is one of two Republicans who serve on the Jan. 6 select committee, also alluded to his belief that the Republican National Committee is encouraging threats against lawmakers.
“The Darkness is spreading courtesy of cowardly leaders fearful of truth,” he said in his tweet linking to the letter.
If you really think the way to get your point of disagreement across to a legislator is to threaten them and their family, you need to reassess your life choices.
This isn’t ok. We need to bring the temperature down a few degrees.
PENCE IN PEORIA
Via our friend Brenden Moore of the Pantagraph:
Former Vice President Mike Pence fired up downstate Republicans at a local Lincoln Day Dinner on Monday night, urging the party loyalists gathered to fight back against what he described as "decline and decay” Democratic policies in Springfield and Washington, and "to set the table" for wins at the ballot box in 2022 and 2024.
Pence, who is believed to be setting the table for his own 2024 presidential run, was warmly received by the nearly 700 Republican elected officials, activists and supporters at the Peoria Civic Center.
"Illinois and the great city of Chicago are the heart of this heartland and this heartland is the heart of America," said Pence, a former governor of Indiana. "We need strong, principled, conservative leadership leading this heartland state."
Pence was fervent at times while mixing in some humor as he placed blame for the country's economic woes at the feet of Democrats in control of Washington and Springfield while simultaneously touting the policies achieved during, as he described it, the "Trump-Pence Administration."
With the exception of Richard Nixon, former Veeps don’t have a ton of success running after they leave D.C.
That’s it for this morning. More stories online at www.theillinoize.com all day.