THE ILLINOIZE: Election Day!...By the end of the day, 4.5 million Illinoisans will have voted...Bailey & DeVore hold bizarre anti-vax news conference...10 things I'm watching..."What are you hearing?"
November 8, 2022
Good morning, Illinois.
It’s Election Day. Finally.
Because of the late primary, we didn’t get any kind of a break this summer, so this election season feels like it has been dragging on for a year.
We’ll have an Election Day live blog up on the website here. Check back throughout the day.
I’ll be on WGN-TV tonight beginning at 7pm providing analysis and witty commentary. You can watch online here.
Our friend Ben Garbarek will have our live blog after 7. I’ll try to check in with thoughts and interesting tidbits when I have some time. Check back for that post here.
We’ll also have a post-election live stream tomorrow at noon.
Today, Gov. JB Pritzker will be at south side train stations and polling places this morning. He’ll visit a polling place in Old Town at 9:55, he’ll vote at 11:05, and have lunch with Democratic candidates at the famed Manny’s Deli at noon. Sen. Darren Bailey will greet commuters at the Ogilvie Transportation Center in downtown Chicago from 7:30-8:30. He’ll stop at a pancake house in suburban Carol Stream at 10.
Pritzker holds his election night event at the Marriott Marquis on the near South Side. Bailey will be at the Crowne Plaza in Springfield.
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Let’s get to it.
FINAL PUSH FOR PRITZKER & BAILEY
Governor JB Pritzker and most of the statewide Democratic ticket flew around the state yesterday for a series of rallies at union halls.
Pritzker took his prepared shots at his Republican opponent, Sen. Darren Bailey (R-Xenia), criticizing Bailey’s positions on abortion, the minimum wage, and collective bargaining.
Pritzker said Democrats have spent the last four years fixing problems that Republicans ignore.
“As we speak, Republicans are trying to distract you from solving actual problems by yelling about fake ones,” Pritzker said. “While they peddle their lies in their fake newspapers, we’re moving the state forward, delivering bigger and better things for the working families of Illinois.”
While elections around the state have seemingly closed in recent days, Pritzker’s race has been cut in half from 20-points in late August to 9-points in late October.
“We can’t take any votes for granted,” Pritzker said, seemingly acknowledging the race has closed in recent days. “To get the job done, we’re going to have to fight for it.”
Pritzker also urged votes for Amendment 1, the so-called “Worker’s Rights Amendment,” which would enshrine new union protections in the state constitution, even though federal law governs many private sector union activities.
BAILEY & DEVORE HOLD BIZARRE ANTI-VAX RALLY
He gained notoriety fighting COVID-19 regulations, and it looks like GOP gubernatorial nominee Sen. Darren Bailey (R-Xenia), is riding the same horse all the way to the end.
In a disjointed, sometimes bizarre and contentious news conference or rally (or both) Monday morning in suburban Oak Brook, Bailey and GOP Attorney General nominee Tom DeVore railed against Governor JB Pritzker’s administration over e-mails they believe show the Governor is intending to mandate the COVID-19 vaccine for all school children.
JB Pritzker uses our kids to make political points,” Bailey said in front of a crowd of parents opposed to COVID vaccines. “He locks schoolchildren out of their classrooms, and he tries to twist their tender minds with ideology in his quest to be the most left-wing governor in America. Now his minions are looking to impose vaccine mandates on our children.”
Pritzker’s campaign referred us to a statement from his official spokesperson, Jordan Abudayyeh:
As the Governor has clearly said, there are no plans to update the vaccine requirements for school age children. But it should come as no surprise that Darren Bailey and Tom DeVore are once again playing political games with public health. The CDC recommended school age children get the COVID vaccine and the email chain they are referencing is IDPH making sure they had a full understanding of the process for adding a vaccine to the existing requirements in order to answer questions about it. In other words, it’s an email discussion where DPH staff are doing their jobs.
There are already 12 mandated vaccines to enter school in Illinois.
TEN THINGS I’M WATCHING TODAY
In 2014, then-candidate Bruce Rauner beat Gov. Pat Quinn 61% to 37% and won the second largest county in the state by around 70,000 votes. In 2018, JB Pritzker beat Rauner 48% to 46% for a margin of about 8,000 votes. If Bailey wins DuPage, it doesn’t guarantee he wins the election, but it sure helps his cause. If Pritzker wins DuPage, it’s probably lights out for the Bailey campaign.
Tale of Turnout-
Bailey is counting on a gigantic turnout in downstate counties to have a shot and making up the perceived gap in the city of Chicago, suburban Cook County, and collar counties. They’re also hoping for some Democratic apathy due to crime and the economy (and they’re hoping some pretty blatant efforts to suppress Black turnout work). Some polls have shown Bailey hovering around the magic 20% number in the city of Chicago, which is generally regarded as the magic number for a Republican to win statewide.
Four Congressional Districts hanging by a thread-
By all polling, trends, ratings agencies, and conventional wisdom, the 6th District (Casten/Pekau), 11th District (Foster/Lauf), 13th District (Budzinski/Deering), and 14th District (Underwood/Gryder) races are all too close to call. Democrats drew the districts with varying degrees of success. President Biden won the 6th by 11 points in 2020, the 11th by 15 points, the 13th by 15 points, and the 14th by 11 points. But the 2018 numbers are a lot closer. I’m hearing varying levels of confidence in the districts, but don’t be surprised if one or two of them flip tonight.
Is Esther Joy King Flipping 17?
Republican Esther Joy King came out of nowhere to nearly unseat Congresswoman Cheri Bustos (D-Moline) in 2020. Bustos isn’t running again and Democrats redrew the district in the hopes of making it safer. Joe Biden won the district by around 8 points in 2020 and Gov. Pritzker won it by around 9 points in 2018 (though, remember, Rauner underperformed pretty heavily downstate.) Democrats are sweating this one and a lot of Republicans think King will win the seat over former TV weatherman Eric Sorensen. King would be the first Republican to hold the seat since Bobby Schilling held it for one term from 2011-2013.
Undervotes on Amendment 1
In what may be the most complicated math of the night (which for me, granted, is anything more complicated than long division), we’ll have to keep an eye on the number of people who skip Amendment 1, the so-called “Workers Rights Amendment,” on their ballot. It’s pretty easy to overlook if you aren’t paying attention. Passing the amendment requires 60% of the vote on the question itself or 50% +1 of all ballots cast. So, if there are 4,000,000 votes on the question, it requires 2.4 million votes for passage. If there are 4,000,000 total ballots cast, but only 3,000,000 vote on the question, it would require 2,000,001 to pass. A lot depends on how many people overlook or skip the question.
The abortion impact
In the weeks following the Supreme Court abortion decision, abortion rights were the top issue across the board. It fired Democrats up, engaged moderate women, was at the top of issues lists in polling, and became the only thing Democratic politicians talked about for months. From what I’m hearing, polling shows that moderate and independent voters moving late don’t have abortion at the top of their issues list. In fact, in many cases, it’s number 4 or 5. We’ll see how numbers shape up, but if Democrats are cleaning house in the suburbs, you’ll know why.
Supreme Spending
Well in excess of $14 million has been spent so far (and not all groups have reported their spending) on the two Supreme Court seats on the ballot today. Democrat Elizabeth Rochford should be leading Republican Mark Curran in the new 2nd District, but we’re hearing it’s a supremely (get it?) close race. The same goes for the 3rd District, where incumbent Justice Mike Burke faces Appellate Justice Mary K. O’Brien. The 3rd probably leans Republican, but both sides think they’re going to win those races. If Democrats win one, they retain the majority. If Democrats win both, they take the majority for the first time in decades.
Potential pickups for GOP downstate
Republicans have high hopes they can pick up at least two downstate State Senate districts (Tharp/Harriss in the 56th and Turner/Hamilton in the 48th). There’s been giant spending, including both sides making broadcast St. Louis TV buys in the 56th district race. Republicans also think they can beat Rep. Katie Stuart (D-Edwardsville), though that may be a tougher haul. Even though the pulled down TV in the new 36th Senate race a few weeks ago, the building wave has renewed optimism that Rock Island Mayor Mike Thoms could beat Rep. Mike Halpin (D-Rock Island).
Did Dems overreach in redistricting?
Watching how some of these races are tightening, especially congressional races, we may have to reassess the map Democrats drew that originally looked like a ticket to a decade of GOP mediocrity. It’s starting to look like Democrats were banking on GOP numbers staying at Trump-level lows, which sure doesn’t look like it’s going to be the case. There are 17 House districts Governor Pritzker won by less than 10 points in 2018. How many of them go Republican?
Pritzker’s coattails (or lack thereof)
The general consensus is that Gov. Pritzker is going to win. But, while many of us thought it looked more like a 15-20 point race in the summer, but it sure looks a lot more like a 5 point race today. Democrats likely hold the U.S. Senate seat and the statewide offices, but if D’s are losing down ticket races tonight, there’s going to be some grumpiness among the establishment.
WHAT ARE YOU HEARING?
There’s a thing in politics where people desperate for information on Election Day just send a flurry of texts to their friends in the business asking “what are you hearing?” It’s usually a vague anecdote about turnout or what kind of whiskey they’re drinking after this thing is over. But, I asked a heap of people yesterday, both Democrats and Republicans, “what are you hearing?” I’m not going to identify anyone so they can continue to speak candidly.
City of Chicago and Cook early vote/vote by mail turnout is low so far.
Madison County Democratic areas are voting heavier than in 2018.
Nikki Budzinski will have to run it up big in the Metro East and Champaign-Urbana to make up ground in red rural areas. It may have been drawn D+7, but it’ll be a lot closer than that.
“So many Supreme Court ads.”
“Red wave is coming. In the suburbs all weekend and things feel good for Republicans.”
[Republicans] “looking good” for Supreme Court.
Lauf, Pekau up, calling Esther Joy King “a lock.”
Bailey loses by 3-5%
House GOP gain a few, SGOP gains 1 or 2, otherwise Dems hold.
Budzinski wins but “it’s very close.”
“It’s all a mixed bag of uncertainty. This is the worst election for predicting outcomes.”
Elik will romp, Korte/Stuart and Harriss/Tharp will be super close.
Appears things are closing. “The question is does that mean Dems win by 1 instead of 5 or do races flip to GOP?” SGOP picks up 2-3, HGOP gets 3-4.
Budzinski race way too close for comfort.
Union members are “certainly engaged and fired up” about Worker’s Rights Amendment.
17th Congressional is too close to call. “We’re all on the edge of our seats.”
Bloomington/Peoria district (Chung/Preston) “could be a pickup for House D’s.”
Republicans have momentum, R+4 to R+5 generic ballot. “Should be a good night.”
“Doesn’t seem to bee much enthusiasm about the election” in this person’s neck of southern Illinois.
Stava-Murray may have a real race and be in trouble, Reboletti may be surging at the right time.
Casten is about to be rejected by many of the white suburban women who propelled him to Congress.
Guessing Pritzker wins by a meager 4-5%.
(from a Republican): Pritzker by 10.
“…not sure if red wave gives [GOP] big wins or just some wins.”
“National wave for Republicans is getting more powerful by the hour.”
Expect GOP to win one of the suburban congressional districs. Dems were “too greedy” in trying to get GOP down to 5 seats.
“I don’t see the suburban Republicans who left the party over Rauner and Trump voting for seven statewide Democrats.” Expects some will flip to Brady or Demmer.
Dem: “I am nervous about Budzinski, Turner, and Tharp.”
“Hearing both Supreme Court races are neck and neck.”
Foster/Lauf “will be a toss up” and it has been underreported how Lauf has gotten her ship righted.
“Environment continues to move in the GOP way, just not sure if it is enough to compensate for the massive spending differential.”
“SGOP pick up at least 4 (Harriss, Hamilton, Lewis, Sheehan.) Says “legit chance” at picking up 6.
A different GOPer reacting: “If they do, let’s build a statue to McConchie.”
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