THE ILLINOIZE: Election Day free post...Mike Bost in the fight of his political life...5 things I'm watching today..."What are you hearing?"
March 19, 2024
It’s (Primary) Election Day. We made it.
We’ll have our traditional Election Day Live Blog here beginning at 6am. Drop me a note with what you’re seeing out there. patrick@theillinoize.com.
At 7pm, we’re trying something new. We’re doing a Livestream results show on YouTube, Facebook, and Twitter. We’re going to be very results heavy with a team pounding through results to get them on the screen to you ASAP.
We’re also planning bipartisan panels with more than 15 of the smartest political minds around the state, winners, and some surprises along the way. I’m really excited and I think you’ll enjoy it. Tune in and share the links with your friends and colleagues, too.
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There’s nothing on Governor Pritzker’s public schedule today. The House and Senate come back tomorrow.
Let’s get to it.
BOST: “YOU CAN’T BURN THE PLACE DOWN”
On the day before a grueling primary race to win his sixth term in Congress, you can hear the weariness in Congressman Mike Bost’s (R-Murphysboro) voice.
He’s traveling between four campaign stops in his sprawling 34-county district that covers the southern third of Illinois that has found him in an eight-month sprint being challenged, almost unbelievably, from the right.
Bost is trying to hold off former state senator Darren Bailey, who was the 2022 GOP nominee for governor in Illinois.
Bailey has repeatedly attempted to make Bost look like a leftist, but Bost and his campaign have squarely aligned themselves with former president and likely 2024 GOP nominee Donald Trump.
It even earned Bost Trump’s endorsement, which many observers believed would be a golden ticket in a district where GOP voters have an astronomically high approval rating of the controversial former president.
“Is it the only thing? No, but it’s a great help,” Bost said.
But Trump’s endorsement hasn’t caused a landslide in polling. A GOP pollster earlier this month showed Bost with a six-point lead over Bailey and sources say internal polls from both camps are showing a consistently close race.
Bost says the tight race has less to do with Trump and more to do with the modern GOP feeling on incumbency.
“There are people who automatically want to throw the incumbent out,” Bost said. “The voters themselves have got to come to a point where they understand you can’t burn the place down, you build the place up.”
Bost took a subtle shot at Bailey, who is aligned with House Freedom Caucus members like Congresswoman Mary Miller (R-Hindsboro) and have been responsible for much of the internal House GOP strife since Republicans took the House last year.
“I’m a governing conservative and we know that we actually need to [fix things],” Bost said. “We’ve got to make this nation better and we have to redirect the ship in the right course. To do that, you’ve gotta be able to be a governing conservative and not somebody who just goes to Washington to who votes everything down and says ‘my answer’s no, my answer’s no.”
We made multiple requests to speak with Bailey. Bailey’s campaign did not make him available for a phone interview Monday.
Bailey will hold an election night party with supporters in Louisville in Clay County tonight at the private Christian school he and his wife operate. Bost will gather with supporters in Murphysboro, but won’t be making a late night of it.
He’ll be spending the night near the St. Louis airport to catch an early flight to D.C. Wednesday morning.
“Win or lose, I still have a job to do,” Bost said.
After tonight, we may know how much longer Bost will be doing the job.
FIVE THINGS I’M WATCHING TODAY
Can Bost Hold On-
Conventional wisdom told you when former president Donald Trump made his endorsement in this race, it would wrap things up for the recipient of that endorsement. Bost got the endorsement, but hasn’t pulled away.
There are a million hypotheses for why it hasn’t been the be all, end all for Bost in this race, it surely hasn’t hurt him.
It was clear in polling earlier this month that both men had huge approval ratings and both men were very well known in the district. Bailey ain’t your typical challenger and is seen by his supporters as a sort of proto-Trump anyway.
Bost is the favorite going in, but there is nobody I talk to in political circles that would be shocked if Bailey wins this race.
Is Mary Flowers done?-
She should be. When the Speaker of the House lines up a million-dollars plus for a challenger of a 40-year incumbent, you know this is for real.
Flowers is certainly a controversial figure in Springfield and her removal from leadership last year was well documented. But money doesn’t take away the institutional standing of a lawmaker who has been a fixture for four decades.
It would be a real embarrassment for House Speaker Chris Welch and it would make things pretty awkward. Flowers shouldn’t win, but she might just be the kind of force of nature that could beat this kind of tidal wave.
102nd Drama-
The write-in vs. write-in race between Rep. Adam Niemerg (R-Dieterich) and school superintendent Jim Acklin has been nothing short of goofy. Niemerg messed up his petitions, got kicked off the ballot, and the Illinois Education Association recruited Acklin to challenge Niemerg in a write-in race.
It has been a messy, mean, unique primary and we likely won’t know the results tonight. So far, it looks like only a couple of the 11 counties in the district will have any sort of numbers tonight.
We probably won’t have any answers until the end of the week.
The Leftward Trend of Illinois Democrats-
It’s probably a lock for the transfer tax referendum to pass today and the Guzman/Toro race in the 20th Senate District, the most liberal district in the state, aren’t great barometers for the movement of the Democratic party.
I’m keeping an eye on the Cook County State’s Attorney’s race to see if Clayton Harris III, the Kim Foxx protege wins the seat over the more mainstream, law & order candidate Eileen O’Neill Burke. But O’Neill Burke has not been particularly visible in the suburbs where she could have run up the score. Even with all.the.money, she still may lose.
I’d also see if Congressman Bill Foster (D-Naperville) or Congressman Sean Casten (D-Downers Grove) get any sort of a scare from their challenges from the left.
Just How Bad Will Turnout Be?-
It’s gonna be really bad. In 2020, with no opposition and the world around us coming to an end, there were about 521,000 votes for Donald Trump in the GOP primary. I doubt the number is quite that small, but I bet it won’t touch the 584,000 for George W. Bush when he ran unopposed for re-election in 2004.
There isn’t a great comparison for Democrats in recent years. President Obama had around 653,000 votes in 2012, Probably a good starting point, but it will likely be lower.
WHAT ARE YOU HEARING?
There’s a thing in politics where people desperate for information on Election Day just send a flurry of texts to their friends in the business asking “what are you hearing?” It’s usually a vague anecdote about turnout or what kind of whiskey they’re drinking after this thing is over. But, I asked a heap of people last night, both Democrats and Republicans, “what are you hearing?” I’m not going to identify anyone so they could speak candidly:
“The reality is no one has a legitimate clue.” (ain’t that the truth?)
SOUTHERN IL:
Early votes up in Williamson and Saline counties with some hot local primaries. Word is a lot of Dems crossing over. Gotta believe turnout will be low in places without local contests.
One source says Bost internals have him “outside the margin of error.” We haven’t confirmed that with the campaign
“I believe Bost/Bailey will be close, within five points.”
“50/50” on Bost/Bailey
“My intuition is that it’s close. The only thing keeping Mike in it is Trump’s endorsement.”
“All the polling [in Bost/Bailey"] said immigration. Bailey did a good job on that issue, Bost did not.”
If Bailey wins “at least it would give him a job and keep him from running statewide.”
Senate 58/House 116: “Bryant and Severin will win.”
House 116: Severin win “should be a satisfying shellacking.”
CENTRAL IL:
“A lot of anxiety, not much more.”
“Turnout is going to be awful.”
“I don’t think it’ll be a big turnout day.”
“Campaigns that are well run and organized for [get out the vote] should come out on top.”
“Early vote turnout is weak. Enthusiasm is weak. Nothing remarkable down the stretch.”
17th Congressional: “Judge Joe [McGraw] will win his primary big.”
Senate District 37: “toss up.”
“Yager coming on strong, but that’ll likely be close.”
“Probably Arellano, but seems nobody is running away with it.”
Senate District 53: “Chris Balkema is a shoe-in.”
“Balkema wins.”
“I think Yager and Faber win.”
House District 76: Situation on the ground says Amy Murri-Briel and DeKalb Mayor Cohen Barnes “neck and neck.”
“Been impressed by Liz Bishop’s effort [in 76th GOP primary]. Turnout is key there. I think she pulls it out.”
House District 102: Jim Acklin/Adam Niemerg race: “all going to be about turnout.”
“anyone’s guess.”
House District 107: “Halbrook will pull it out.”
House District 110: “Blaine [Wilhour] is very confident.”
SUBURBS:
“It’s dead up here.”
Keep an eye on suburban challengers to Congressman Bill Foster (D-Naperville) and Congressman Sean Casten (D-Downers Grove). “could reflect on how quickly the Democratic suburban electorate is shifting toward progressive vs. moderate politics.”
CITY:
20th Senate: “[Graciela] Guzman may break 50.”
“[Sen. Natalie] Toro is going to get embarrassed.”
State’s Attorney: Wards that voted early seem to be “favorable” to Eileen O’Neill Burke.
Long early voting lines in wards 41 & 19 Monday “which should be good for Burke.”
“I think Harris wins.”