THE ILLINOIZE: Eight things I'm watching in today's Chicago mayoral race...The state's SAFE-T Act argument...Mr. Welch goes to Washington
February 28, 2023
Good morning, Illinois.
Happy municipal primary day.
All eyes are on the Chicago mayoral race tonight as a field of nine candidates will be whittled down to two. It’s been a real mess of a campaign and the next five weeks to a general election won’t be a lot of fun, I suspect.
The Senate is out this week. The House is in today at noon. Governor JB Pritzker does not have anything on his public schedule.
EIGHT THINGS I’M WATCHING IN THE CHICAGO MAYORAL RACE
With the race for Mayor of Chicago captivating the state’s political class today, here are ten things we’re watching as voters head to the polls today.
Turnout, turnout, turnout
Frontrunner (if you want to call it that) Paul Vallas, the former Chicago Public Schools CEO and 2014 running mate of Gov. Pat Quinn, looks like a near lock to make the runoff. Vallas is expected to be strongest in the northwest side of the city, where you find lots of police and firefighters, as well as around the Loop with CEO’s and the penthouse types. If polling is any indicator, it is nearly an impossibility that Vallas gets to a majority tonight. Pollster Matt Podgorski tweeted last night he expects turnout to top 600,000, which would be around 40,000 more than four years ago. Podgorski’s final poll, by the way, showed a wide open race for second. Turnout also impacts other candidates…
The race space and Chuy’s chances
Congressman Jesús Chuy Garcia, who was initially considered a frontrunner, if not the top frontrunner when entering the race, has run a pretty terrible campaign. He has exceptional name ID and a progressive base, but his biggest issue may be getting Latino voters to the polls. As of the 2021 American Community Survey (ACS) from the Census Bureau (remember that, redistricting fans?), Blacks made up 29.2% of the city population while “Hispanic or Latino” made up 28.7%. It’s a nominal difference and, while the different Latino communities in the city don’t vote as a block, Garcia’s chances may rest on how many he can get in his camp. Add the fact that it’s traditionally very difficult to get Latinos to the polls, especially in an off year election, and it may be make or break for Garcia. Meanwhile, there are seven African American candidates in the race.
Do progressives coalesce?
It’s no secret progressives are making up a larger block of Democratic primary voters in recent years. Garcia was expected to be the recipient of the support, but Cook County Commissioner Brandon Johnson has resonated, earning truckloads of money from the Chicago Teachers Union and the endorsements of some of the most well-known liberals in the city. It’s possible Johnson, Garcia, Ja'Mal Green, and even Rep. Kam Buckner (D-Chicago) could all split the progressive vote enough to keep themselves out of the runoff.
Lightfoot may be toast
There certainly is a path for Lightfoot to make the runoff , but some things are going to have to go right for her. She was elected as a reformer in 2019 and the gruff, tough, no-nonsense “nobody nobody sent” that was outside of the machine. Her term has been an epic failure from finances to crime to you name it. She’s squarely in the underdog column again and could sneak into the runoff if Garcia and Johnson stumble.
Will there be a surprise for the second spot?
Probably not. Willie Wilson’s numbers have been flat, while someone like Buckner or Sophia Green, who would be really interesting candidates in the runoff, would have to wayyy overperform expectations. If I had to pick one, I’d say Wilson, but I don’t think enough people take him seriously (as they shouldn’t.)
Is it possible it isn’t decided tonight?
Absolutely. Over 200,000 vote by mail (VBM) ballots have already been processed and tens of thousands more could be out there. As long as its postmarked today, a mail vote has two weeks to arrive. If you get a race for second place within a couple of hundred votes, we could be up and down with the daily count for the next two weeks.
The next five weeks will be ugly
No matter who advances tonight, the next five weeks won’t be cake and ice cream for the competitors. Vallas will be painted as the second coming of Trump, Lightfoot will be painted as a pro-crime failure. If it’s Johnson or Garcia, who knows?
Do I have a prediction?
I expect Vallas to advance, probably somewhere around 30%. My perception is Johnson has momentum going in, but it sure feels like he, Lightfoot, and Garcia are all stacked up together and you could flip a three-sided coin on that one.
THE STATE’S DEFENSE OF THE SAFE-T ACT
In their final brief before the Illinois Supreme Court hears arguments over the constitutionality of ending cash bail and the controversial SAFE-T Act, the Illinois Attorney General’s office is urging the high court to uphold the law.
The 33-page brief, filed with the Supreme Court Monday by Deputy Solicitor General Alex Hemmer, argued the late-December ruling from Kankakee County Judge Thomas Cunnington that declared the law unconstitutional should be overturned and gave an insight into their arguments.
The argument from State’s Attorneys was because three different points in the state constitution require “sureties,” essentially required money bail remain in the system.
“Plaintiffs’ grab-bag of constitutional theories should be rejected,” Hemmer wrote. “None of these constitutional provisions—much less all three—locks in place the institution of monetary bail. Whether viewed through the lens of [the] 1818 or 1970 [constitution,] the clause does not require the State to maintain a system of monetary bail; rather, it grants criminal defendants a qualified right to seek pretrial release.”
In the plaintiff’s brief filed earlier this month, Will County State’s Attorney Jim Glasgow, a Democrat, argued the General Assembly infringed on the constitutional rights of the judiciary.
“The General Assembly has unduly encroached upon a court's inherent powers by divesting the judiciary of its discretion to consider all the available tools provided under the constitution to balance a defendant's liberty interest with the societal interests of ensuring a defendant's appearance in court and protecting the public,” Glasgow wrote.
Hemmer disagreed.
“The circuit court’s separation-of-powers holding is badly flawed. The court misapplied this Court’s precedent, stating that the General Assembly is “prohibited” from legislating in areas in which courts have inherent authority,” he wrote. “In the end, plaintiffs’ view appears to be that the legislature simply has no serious role to play in regulating pretrial criminal procedure. But that position cannot be reconciled with Hemingway or history.”
The Supreme Court will hear the arguments from both sides on March 14.
WELCH AT THE WHITE HOUSE
House Speaker Chris Welch spent his Monday at the White House for a “roundtable discussion” with five Black speakers from around the country.
Speaker Rachel Talbot Ross of Maine, Speaker Adrienne Jones of Maryland, Speaker Joe Tate of Michigan, and Speaker Carl Heastie of New York all took part with Welch and the White House Office of Intergovernmental Affairs.
“We are all ‘firsts’ in our states’ political history; like those before us who first blazed trails into the halls of power, we carry the expectation that we use these opportunities afforded to us to create more opportunities for all those who will follow us,” Welch said. “We feel the ever-pressing desire to build a more equitable and just society in each of our respective states, and we know that if we work together, consensus can be built.”
Welch also attended a reception observing the end of Black History Month last night attended by the President and First Lady.
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