THE ILLINOIZE: Debate day, part two...Pritzker outspent Bailey 23:1 in Q3...Supreme Court spending about to explode?...A mountain lion in Illinois
October 18, 2022
Good morning, Illinois.
I’ll be on WLS-AM with the great Steve Cochran this morning a little after 7. You can listen online here.
I’ll also join Paul Lisnek and Chip Brewster for WGN-TV’s pre-debate analysis web show tonight at 6:30. This link should work for that.
We’ll have another of our weekly Livestream/Podcast shows tomorrow at noon. We’ll be joined by Rep. Dan Brady (R-Bloomington), the GOP candidate for Secretary of State. You can see it (and subscribe) at our YouTube channel.
We are exactly three weeks from the November 8 General Election. The final debate of the race for Governor is tonight. More on that below.
I’ll be at WGN for tonight’s debate and will have the full rundown for subscribers in the morning.
Speaking of which, subscribers get the good stuff each week. They get exclusive newsletters on Wednesdays and Fridays, along with breaking news alerts, previews, and whatever interesting tidbit I find for them before it’s ready for the general public.
It’s also the best way to support the independent work we’re doing here. It’s just $99 per year or $9.99 per month. I hope you will join us. Just click below.
I’m always interested in your comments, too, so tell me who you think won the debate after the lights go down tonight. Drop me a note at patrick@theillinoize.com.
Let’s get to it.
WHAT TO EXPECT WHEN YOU’RE DEBATING
When the lights go up on the second and final television debate between Governor JB Pritzker and Sen. Darren Bailey (R-Xenia), nearly every insider is expecting a more aggressive, attacking approach from the incumbent.
“[Pritzker] got pushed around last time,” said one GOP operative. “I would expect him to come out swinging and paint Bailey as a complete extremist.”
The sentiment appears to be bipartisan.
“The Governor is going to show exactly how out of touch Darren Bailey is,” said a Democratic insider. “It’s going to be a bad night for Bailey.”
Pritzker hasn’t held a public event in more than a week, and hasn’t appeared publicly since last Wednesday. We’re told he’s been involved in extensive debate prep, though his campaign wouldn’t confirm anything. Bailey has continued to campaign, holding events over the weekend in the suburbs and in southern Illinois. His team wouldn’t say what kind of debate prep he’s been taking part in.
After both men dodged multiple questions in their first debate earlier this month, it is likely debate moderators Micah Materre and Tahman Bradley of WGN will press them for specifics.
Bailey generally outperformed expectations in the first debate, and it appeared as if his spokesman was lowering expectations when we heard from him last night.
“I predict Pritzker comes out very strong,” spokesman Joe DeBose said. “He has been avoiding public appearances, huddling with advisors, and preparing for over a week. We will remain focused on making Illinois safer and more affordable for everyone.”
Pritzker’s side appears confident.
“Expect to see two very stark visions for the state of Illinois,” said a campaign spokesperson. “Bailey has yet to articulate a single plan, position, or idea for the state and voters will undoubtedly see that on every issue of significance. He’s all hat and no cattle.”
A new poll released Monday by the Illinois Broadcasters Association shows Prtizker leading Bailey 50%-28%, with about 13% undecided. So Bailey will likely be working to appeal to undecided voters and attempt to peel moderates away from Pritzker.
The debate is at 7pm tonight and will air on WGN in Chicago, WCIA in Champaign-Decatur-Springfield, WMBD in Peoria-Bloomington, WHBF in the Quad Cities, KPLR in St. Louis, and WSIL in southern Illinois.
DEMS CASH SMASH
It’s no secret that billionaire Governor JB Pritzker, who is financing his own campaign, has far more resources than Republican Darren Bailey. But, as campaign finance reports for the third quarter were released yesterday, the outsized advantage Pritzker holds has become more clear.
In the third quarter (July 1-September 30, after the primary), Pritzker gave his campaign $20 million. Bailey raised about $2 million. Bailey spent around $1.6 million while Pritzker’s campaign spent around $38.5 million. That’s a 23:1 advantage.
About $15 million was spent propping up other Democrats, including Attorney General Kwame Raoul, Secretary of State candidate Alexi Giannoulias, and Democratic candidates for Illinois Supreme Court. Though, he still spent over $23 million on his own campaign.
As of October 1, Bailey had around $767,000 cash on hand for the final six weeks of the campaign while the Pritzker campaign had $42.3 million on hand.
The Democratic advantage is clear in all statewide races.
In the race for Attorney General, Democrat Kwame Raoul raised around $1.5 million (including $1 million from Pritzker) and spent around $800,000. Republican Tom DeVore raised around $220,000 and loaned himself another $250,000. He paid back $20,000 of the loan as part of his around $187,000 in expenses. DeVore had around $295,000 remaining for the final six weeks of the campaign, Raoul had around $1.9 million.
In the race for Secretary of State, Democrat Alexi Giannoulias raised around $3.1 million in the third quarter (including $1 million from Pritzker). He spent around $1.3 million and had around $2.6 million cash on hand on October 1. Republican Rep. Dan Brady (R-Bloomington) raised around $320,000, spent around $75,000, and had around $250,000 cash on hand.
Democratic State Treasurer Mike Frerichs raised around $650,000, spent around $330,000, and had around $2.3 million cash on hand. (He hasn’t run any TV ads yet.) His Republican opponent, Rep. Tom Demmer (R-Dixon), raised around $91,000, spent around $95,000, and had around $460,000 cash at the end of September.
The disparity is clearest in the race for State Comptroller. Incumbent Democrat Susana Mendoza raised around $620,000, spent around $185,000, and had around $1.5 million cash on hand. Republican Shannon Teresi, who was recruited by Ken Griffin’s consultants in the primary and was left out to dry when Griffin bolted town, had just $26,000 cash on hand on October 1. She raised around $38,000 and spent around $29,000.
Considering polling and financial advantages, statewide Democrats may be coasting to victory November 8.
SUPREME COURT SPENDING COULD EXPLODE
A federal judge has thrown a wrench into new outside spending limits on Illinois Supreme Court races, potentially opening up a spending spree for the final three weeks of the campaign.
Here’s more on the decision from the Trib:
It stems from a federal lawsuit brought in August by a conservative legal group that argued the laws violate free-speech rights established in cases including the U.S. Supreme Court’s landmark Citizens United decision, which opened the door to unlimited political spending.
In issuing a preliminary injunction suspending the laws ahead of the Nov. 8 election, U.S. District Judge John Tharp Jr. found that the Chicago-based Liberty Justice Center and its clients, a former Illinois lawyer and two political action committees, have “some likelihood of success” in proving their case that the laws are unconstitutional and should be overturned.
The state laws in question were pushed by Democrats seeking to preserve their party’s control of all three branches of state government, including a 4-3 majority on the high court.
Democratic legislators last year approved a measure that bars judicial candidates from receiving campaign cash from out-of-state contributors and groups that don’t disclose their donors.
And this year, lawmakers approved a measure that bans contributions in excess of $500,000 per election cycle from a single source to independent expenditure committees set up to support or oppose judicial candidates.
Republicans are surely hoping a rich benefactor (ahem, Richard Uihlein), will come in and spend a pile of dollars on helping Justice Michael Burke and former Lake County Sheriff Mark Curran, who are in tight races for the new 2nd and 3rd district seats on the court.
But, while the lawsuit was brought by conservatives, the decision means there’s no reason a wealthy Democrat (ahem, JB Pritzker), can come in and give $15 million dollars to an IE committee for the final three weeks. So, there are some Republicans concerned the decision could backfire, especially since a judicial PAC supporting Republicans had millions on hand going into the final month of the campaign.
HERE KITTY, KITTY
This isn’t necessarily political news, but it came from state government, so it qualifies.
From the Department of Natural Resources:
A mountain lion (Puma concolor – cougar) was struck and killed by a vehicle on Interstate 88 in DeKalb County on Sunday, the Illinois Department of Natural Resources officials announced today.
The animal was transferred by the Illinois State Police to an Illinois Department of Natural Resources (IDNR) wildlife biologist and has been delivered to the University of Illinois Champaign-Urbana (UIUC) for a full necropsy and DNA analysis. The UIUC analysis will provide valuable information to biologists about the animal, its place of origin, and exploratory movements across the Midwest.
IDNR experts believe it may be the same mountain lion that was captured on a trail camera on private property in Whiteside County in late September and confirmed by wildlife biologists from IDNR and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).
IDNR is monitoring another mountain lion reported in western Illinois in early October. This animal has a GPS collar that was originally attached in November 2021 by the Nebraska Game and Parks Commission (NGPC) as part of an ongoing research project on their mountain lion population, including movement patterns.
Mountain lions were eliminated from Illinois prior to the 1870s due to habitat loss and overharvest. Although extremely rare in Illinois, mountain lion sightings have been confirmed in Illinois during the past few decades consisting of younger animals, typically originating from a population in the Black Hills of South Dakota.
Now I don’t want to walk our 30 lb. dog after dark.
One of them made it from Nebraska to Illinois? Oh, heck no.
By the way, per IDNR: mountain lions have been protected in Illinois since 2015, and it is unlawful to hunt, kill, or harass them unless they pose an imminent threat to a person or property.
JOIN US