THE ILLINOIZE: Could Bailey beat Pritzker?...13th District Republicans...New polling in Senate, AG, SoS primaries...Casten's daughter dies at 17

June 14, 2022

Good morning, Illinois.

It’s a day like today that I tell people I’m not going to wear pants. If I’m wearing shorts, well, you’ll have to find out.

The National Weather Service is predicting a high of 97° with a heat index of 105° here in the suburbs. Rockford is 98°/105°, Springfield is 99°/106°, and Carbondale is projected for 99°/107°. So, be careful out there, kids.

It’s exactly two weeks from Primary Election Day. We’ll see today if the Irvin campaign is switching up its message or restarting TV. They were using an old ad in the Chicago market yesterday.

We’re looking at a wild two weeks. Keep with us.

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Let’s get to it.

COULD BAILEY ACTUALLY WIN IN NOVEMBER?

As polling indicates conservative Sen. Darren Bailey (R-Xenia) is pulling away from the rest of the GOP field, numerous Republicans say they’re concerned Bailey won’t be able to defeat billionaire Governor JB Pritzker in November.

Bailey, a southern Illinois Senator from Clay County dresses and sounds like a farmer mixed with a bit of Baptist preacher. If he holds on to his 15-point lead in the GOP primary, he would likely be the most conservative Republican nominee in at least the past 100 years.

Considering his underdog status in the primary and funding deficit to Aurora Mayor Richard Irvin, the question becomes, can Bailey do it in the General, too?

Not likely is the consensus answer of dozens of Republican insiders, strategists, and current and former elected officials who spoke with The Illinoize.

“In politics, anything is possible,” said one Republican lawmaker. “I don’t envision a scenario in which he beats [JB] Pritzker.”

“Pritzker has endless campaign funds and I think he’ll just chew Bailey up in the suburbs,” said another GOP official.

Another GOP official compared a Bailey general election race to that of fellow conservative Senator Bill Brady in 2010, who lost to incumbent Pat Quinn in the face of a Republican wave year.

“Just like suburban moderates didn’t support Brady in 2010, the remaining moderates in the GOP will either skip the Governor’s race or vote for Pritzker,” said a longtime GOP operative. “I also don’t see how Bailey matches the Pritzker money.”

Pritzker has already given his campaign more than $90 million for the cycle and will likely spend tens of millions more. Bailey has raised about $10 million so far, much of it from conservative billionaire Richard Uihlein.

“It’s incredibly uphill even in what will be a good Republican year,” said another GOP operative. “Everyone wants to talk about suburban voters and his positions, but look at it from an even more mechanical level. How does he raise $100 million? Or $50 million, or even $25 million? Is Uihlein going to fund the race? It’s pretty likely Griffin takes a pass. [Bailey] will win the primary with probably less than $500k on hand and Pritzker will bury him in July and August.”

But there are plenty of Republicans who think Bailey has a chance.

Read the full story at the site for more.

13TH DISTRICT REPUBLICANS ON THE ISSUES

It appears three Republican candidates in the primary for the newly drawn Democratic leaning 13th congressional district are positioning their campaigns for hard line conservative voters while another may be tailoring a message for the November election.

Four Republican candidates appear on the ballot in a district Democrat Joe Biden won by 11 points and JB Pritzker won by 16 points in 2018.

Regan Deering of Decatur, a former science teacher and small business owner, is also the granddaughter of legendary Archer Daniels Midland CEO Dwayne Andreas. Matt Hausman of rural Champaign County is a farmer, non profit executive, and former aerospace engineer. Terry Martin of Springfield is a longtime journalist who runs the non-profit “Illinois Channel.” Jesse Reising of Decatur is an attorney who recently left a position with global firm Kirkland & Ellis.

Deering, Martin, and Reising all oppose restrictions on gun ownership. Hausman says he is open to restricting access to some high caliber or high powered rifles.

“I’m a rural kid who grew up shooting a .22 and a 12 gauge. I grew up in that culture,” Hausman said. “I support the 2nd Amendment and oppose gun bans, but I do support things that 80% of the country supports, like expanded background checks, red flag laws, possible age requirements. Things like that have broad, bi-partisan support from the general public.

While gasoline tops $5 per gallon in most parts of the central and southern Illinois district, candidates were split on how to provide consumers with immediate relief.

“I think we do need to look at multi-pronged federal action,” said Deering, who says she supports increased incentives for domestic production and opening the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to drilling.

Reising said he wants to end the “war” the Biden administration is waging on oil and gas, but is hesitant to support a temporary cut in the federal gasoline tax.

“I’m for lower taxes across the board, and I would support lowering or reducing the gas tax, as well,” Reising said.

Martin says there likely isn’t immediate relief for consumers from Congrss, but says President Biden needs to kickstart domestic oil production as soon as possible.

Whoever wins the primary faces either former Pritzker and Biden staffer Nikki Budzinski or financial planner David Palmer in November.

Here’s the full video of the four conversations:

NEW POLLING OUT TODAY

FIRST IN THE ILLINOIZE…or something like that.

GOP polling firm Ogden & Fry will release a poll a little later this morning that gives some interesting insight into some statewide GOP races.

We received a copy of the poll late last night.

What O&F did in this poll that we haven’t seen from other polling thus far is force undecided voters to give their choice if the election were held today.

In the GOP race for Governor, Darren Bailey leads Richard Irvin 31%-17%. Jesse Sullivan is 3rd at 11%. But when undecided voters are forced to choose, Bailey jumps to 40%, Irvin to 24%, and Sullivan to 17%.

In the poll for U.S. Senate, Kathy Salvi’s lead has grown to 17% to 8% over Peggy Hubbard with 62% undecided. When undecideds were forced to choose, Salvi’s support jumped to 39%. Hubbard only went up to around 18%.

The same goes for Secretary of State. Rep. Dan Brady (R-Bloomington) leads former U.S. Attorney John Milhiser 32%-17% with 51% undecided. When undecideds are forced to choose, Brady goes up 65%-35%.

The only race where undecides flip the result is Attorney General. Steve Kim leads Tom DeVore 25%-21% with about 45% of voters undecided. After undecideds choose a candidate, DeVore takes a small lead, 41.1% to 40.6%. This could be the race to watch on election night.

I’ll post the whole polling memo on the website a little later on today.

CASTEN FAMILY TRAGEDY

Our deepest sympathy to the family of Congressman Sean Casten (D-Downers Grove), who lost his 17-year-old daughter, Gwen, yesterday.

More from the Chicago Tribune:

Suburban U.S. Rep Sean Casten’s 17-year-old daughter, Gwen Casten, died Monday morning at the family’s Downers Grove home, the congressman’s office and Downers Grove police said.

“This morning, congressman Casten’s beloved daughter, Gwen, passed away,” Casten’s office said in a statement Monday evening. “The Casten family requests privacy, and we will be issuing no further comment during this heartbreaking time.”

Downers Grove police were called to a house in the block where Casten lives just before 7 a.m. Monday “for an unresponsive seventeen year old female,” according to a Police Department statement. “First responders determined that the subject was deceased.”

Casten’s office did not provide any more details about the death.

Casten, of course, is locked in a primary with Congresswoman Marie Newman (D-LaGrange) in the redrawn 6th Congressional District. Newman’s campaign said it is stopping any negative advertising as soon as possible.

But politics don’t belong in this moment. A young girl is gone and her family is heartbroken.

Sadly, there are a bunch of knuckleheads on the internet trying to blame her death on the COVID-19 vaccine. Ignore that crap. Pray for the family for strength and peace.

That’s all for this morning. Thanks for reading.