THE ILLINOIZE: Bailey at risk of losing biggest backer...Proft poll wants to move Bailey right...State senate petitions...Lisa Hernandez and her redistricting committee peeves some Black activists

August 2, 2022

Good morning, Illinois.

It’s 98 days to the General Election and 205 days until the person elected governor takes the oath of office. And it’s been 552 days since the Governor’s official office responded to one of our questions. (What are they afraid of? I’m like a big teddy bear.)

We’ll be doing another Livestream/podcast Wednesday at noon on our YouTube channel (here), Facebook page (here), and Twitter page (here). We’ll talk business in Illinois with Todd Maisch, the CEO of the Illinois Chamber of Commerce. I hope you tune in.

I’ve written a book today, so let’s keep this short.

Let’s get to it.

UIHLEIN PULLING OUT OF BAILEY CAMPAIGN WITHOUT “SERIOUS CHANGES”

With fewer than 100 days before the General Election and a month before voters start receiving ballots, Republican gubernatorial nominee Sen. Darren Bailey (R-Xenia) is at risk of losing his most lucrative donor.

Suburban businessman and conservative donor Richard Uihlein contributed $9 million to Bailey’s campaign between February and the June 28 primary, far and away the southern Illinois farmer’s largest contributor.

But, according to multiple sources with knowledge of the internal discussions, Uihlein is pulling his support for Bailey after what he seems to believe was akin to “setting money on fire.”

“[Uihlein] was not excited about the results [of his contributions], and actually saw [Bailey’s] numbers drop,” a top Republican source said. “That’s when they pivoted and put money into an independent expenditure PAC.”

That independent PAC is run by former political consultant turned gubernatorial candidate turned radio talk show host Dan Proft. Proft’s “People Who Play By the Rules” PAC began airing attack ads on Bailey’s rivals and working to boost Bailey in the primary.

Uihlein’s team believed Bailey’s numbers started moving in the right direction when the combination of the Proft PAC plus the millions in ads spent by Governor JB Pritzker and the Democratic Governors Association, aimed at boosting Bailey, started flowing.

“Naturally, the Uihlein people felt like the $8 or 9 million they gave to the Bailey campaign directly was like setting money on fire,” a GOP source said.

Upon Bailey’s victory in the primary, Uihlein lodged complaints that Bailey spent too much money on staff and consultants and not enough on voter contact.

“They were furious when they saw how much [money] went to staff and consultants versus how much went to voter contact and connecting with the voters,” a top Republican said. “And, I think, frankly they feel like they got ripped off.”

Following the primary, we’re told, Uihlein and his advisers asked the Bailey campaign for a new campaign plan, changes to staff, and a limit on staff and consultant costs, but Bailey balked at the demand.

“Uihlein laid out some very simple and very logical requests for accountability and the Bailey campaign is resisting that request for transparency and accountability,” the source said. “If the Bailey campaign doesn’t act on [those requests], Uihlein will not be funding their campaign.”

Another Republican said the demands made by Uihlein are “common sense” and what any candidate would demand of their campaign. We’re told the Bailey campaign delivered an “outlandish” campaign plan when asked to put one together for Uihlein.

“He’s not going to get a blank check with no accountability. The campaign has already shown that they can’t effectively spend money and, just like the [Richard] Irvin campaign, the consultants and the staff make all the money.”

Uihlein apparently also demanded Bailey bulk up campaign operation with more seasoned hands, especially those with an understanding of voter contact.

Numerous Republicans we spoke to were critical of the Bailey campaign’s lack of staff and field operations in the Chicago suburbs.

“There aren’t a lot of field operations in Clay County that don’t involve farm implements,” joked a Republican lawmaker when discussing efforts to reach voters in the suburbs.

If Bailey were looking for another benefactor, he shouldn’t look toward billionaire Ken Griffin, who spent close to $50 million on failed GOP primary candidate Richard Irvin. A spokesman for Griffin, who is moving his home and operation to Florida after previously pledging to do “everything in his power” to defeat JB Pritzker confirmed a report Monday that Griffin will not contribute any money to Bailey.

We’re told work is being done behind the scenes to patch the relationship between Bailey and Uihlein, though the two sides have not come together yet.

The Bailey campaign declined to comment. But, a source close to Bailey said the campaign is “confident in Uihlein coming back in.”

In lieu of Bailey, Uihlein may be focusing his money on the PAC run by Proft. The two men have a long history as Uihlein gave millions in recent years to Proft’s previous “Liberty Principles PAC.” The PAC had success nominating conservative candidates in primaries, but often struggled to flip Democratic seats.

(Disclosure: I worked GOP primaries in 2016 and 2018 that lost to Liberty Principles PAC-funded candidates.)

Former Illinois Republican Party Chairman Pat Brady, who advised businessman Gary Rabine in the GOP primary, says Uihlein would be making a mistake entrusting a large independent expenditure project to Proft.

“Proft has been given tens of millions dollars and never flipped a seat,” Brady said. “It's tough to have confidence in a guy who basically is the political version of the Washington Generals who never beat the Globetrotrers.”

Numerous Republicans we spoke to say Bailey isn’t adapting for the November campaign.

“Honestly, talking to Darren Bailey is like Groundhog Day,” a GOP lawmaker said. “It’s the same conversation over and over again. The guy is advised solely by his wife and [campaign manager] Jose Durbin, and whatever they say to him, he believes. You can put facts and data that contradicts what those two say in front of him and he refuses to see it or hear it.”

A spokesman for Uihlein had no comment. A spokesman for Dan Proft’s “People Who Play By the Rules” PAC did not return messages from The Illinoize.

Meanwhile, this week, Pritzker’s campaign is spending over $100,000 on cable and hundreds of thousands more on Chicago broadcast TV alone.

The Bailey campaign? $0.

“He can win, but, at the same time, it’s slipping away by the day,” the top Republican said. “The clock is ticking.”

PROFT POLL: JEANNE IVES 2.0

I received a text message poll last night that certainly appears to be paid for by Proft’s “People Who Play By the Rules” PAC.

The giveaway was a question matching their messaging of “how much worse” things can get in Illinois. A spokesman for Proft’s PAC did not return messages yesterday.

When the poll gets to testing negative messages on the Governor, the PAC moves straight toward hot button social issues. Here are a few:

There were also multiple questions aimed at attacking the Democrat criminal justice reform law.

Some of those questions sound like they’re written for this ad.

I read some of the questions to a Bailey supporter last night who audibly sighed over the phone and said “that doesn’t help us.”

Bailey has avoided focus on hot button social issues since becoming the nominee, but if Proft and his PAC have their way, that’s the road they’re going down. It appears the Proft folks may want to take the race down a culture war road and risk Bailey’s opportunity to control an economic message.

SOME MORE PEITION NEWS

Local Republicans nominated party activist Maria Vasquez of Urbana to challenge Sen. Scott Bennett (D-Champaign) in the 52nd District, which includes most of Champaign-Urbana and stretches to Danville.

Vasquez was a supporter of Sen. Darren Bailey (R-Xenia) in the GOP gubernatorial primary, and had Bailey’s backing for a shot at GOP State Central Committee last week, but she was defeated by Rep. Tim Butler (R-Springfield).

The district was drawn to be more strongly Democratic, even Champaign-Urbana resident and former Miss America Erika Harold lost the district by 11 points in her run for Attorney General in 2018. Some local Republicans believed that distaste for Governor JB Pritzker and a Latina on the ballot could make the district competitive.

It appears Democrats are also challenging six other slated Republicans, though most are in certainly unwinnable districts. Democrats challenged seven slated House candidates, while Republicans challenged petitions of one slated Democrat for House.

OPINION: HERNANDEZ DIDN’T SUPPORT BLACK VOTERS ON REDISTRICTING PANEL

(Editor’s note: This opinion piece comes from activist Valarie Leonard, who was deeply involved, and frustrated, by last year’s legislative redistricting process.)

To be clear, it doesn't matter to me if the head of the Democratic Party of Illinois is Black, White, Latino or Asian. The best person for the job should be in that position. What is deemed best for the job is in the eye of the beholder, and is actually determined by those in power. My opinion doesn't matter, given that I am not an elected official, and I don't have the resources to buy an election or sway the masses.

Having written that, I am feeling "some kinda way" about the selection and ultimate election of Rep. Lisa Hernandez (D-Cicero) as the new chairperson for the Democratic Party of Illinois. Her backers say that she has vision and the ability to expand the party's base, and she's dedicated to building a party based on diversity and inclusion.

But, given the manner in which she presided over the last redistricting process for the Illinois House, I am not convinced that her vision includes expanding the base of Black Democratic voters.

I had a chance to participate in most of the redistricting hearings for the Illinois House and Senate. I was very disappointed that, under her leadership, the initial round of public hearings for the “Chicago West Region” included hearings in Cicero, Berwyn, and Humboldt Park, but not for any predominantly Black communities on Chicago's West Side. Black people stood to be the most negatively impacted by the redistricting process.

I signed up to participate virtually for the Cicero hearing, and was never allowed in the Zoom “room.” Illinois African Americans for Equitable Redistricting had to coalesce with other groups to lobby for the State Legislature to hold hearings that were accessible for Black voters in Black communities on Chicago's south and west sides. The House and Senate Redistricting committees did a poor job of outreach to the Black community.

You can read the whole thing here.

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