THE ILLINOIZE: Bailey announces for Governor next week...Rabine "next few weeks"...GOP shooting Pritzker budget before it's proposed...Some bipartisan hope in Senate newcomers...More vaccine delays...
February 16, 2021
Good morning.
It just. keeps. snowing.
I saw on the old teevee last night the Chicago area had seen more than 30” of snow in three weeks, with potentially six or more overnight.
And while you’re pouring your coffee and on your morning zoom meetings in slippers and pajama pants today, think of the TV reporters who are being sent outside in the snow to tell us it snowed.
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BAILEY ANNOUNCES FOR GOVERNOR NEXT WEEK
State Senator Darren Bailey (R-Xenia), who has been a member of the upper chamber for 35 days after two years in the House, will announce his long-expected campaign for Governor next Monday, sources tell The Illinoize.
Bailey, 54, has positioned himself as the favorite politician of anti-maskers cult hero of those most opposed to Governor JB Pritzker’s executive orders related to the COVID-19 pandemic. Bailey has filed multiple lawsuits against the Governor questioning his constitutional authority to make the actions. Outside of a ruling from a local judge, Bailey has lost every single effort in court. But it has raised his profile tremendously.
I tried to reach Bailey through multiple avenues yesterday and he did not return my messages. But his campaign began soliciting ticket requests for an event next Monday evening in Effingham plugging an “exciting announcement.”
My guess is masks won’t be given out at the door, so bring your own or be subjected to a superspreader event.
Former Senator Paul Schimpf of Waterloo, who did not seek re-election in November, announced his run for Governor. He ran for Attorney General in 2014, but didn’t raise any money and lost to Lisa Madigan 60%-38% in a year that Bruce Rauner beat Pat Quinn and Republicans did well state and nationwide.
TO WIT: Bailey may be the favorite of the QAnon/far right/Trumpy crowd in central and southern Illinois, but there’s nobody outside of Bailey’s circle who takes him seriously as a guy that can get votes from moderate suburban moms that are essential to winning a race statewide. Quinn lost them in 2014, Rauner lost them in 2018, and JB Pritzker is well on his way to losing them in 2022.
Bailey has been an adamant anti-masker. Our poll from late October showed 73% of Illinoisans support Pritzker’s mask mandate.)
Schimpf (or Bailey, for that matter) isn’t known as a prolific fundraiser, and while you can get to petition filing to try to get on the ballot in November, will he be able to raise the kind of money necessary to put a legitimate campaign together? As the GOP struggles to find quality candidates for statewide constitutional offices, you may see some party types try to convince him to throw his hat into the ring for Attorney General again.
Two other potential Republican candidates, Sen. Jason Barickman (R-Bloomington) and businessman Gary Rabine haven’t made any announcements yet. Barickman told me yesterday he’s focused on the spring legislative session to “get things done then go from there.” Rabine texted me last night telling me “I am very confident I am the best candidate to beat Pritzker. I am on course to an announcement in the next few weeks.”
Rabine has no shortage of cash, and lots of TV ads can win you a primary against a gaggle of underfunded candidates. (See: RAUNER, BRUCE)
HERE’S MY QUESTION FOR YOU: Who is your bet, today, 13 months from the 2022 primary, on who the GOP nominee for Governor going to be? Send me your thoughts at patrick@theillinozie.com. Your responses will remain anonymous. Best answers run Friday.
VIRTUAL STATE OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY
To a lesser extent than the State of the Union address in Washington, an Illinois Governor’s State of the State and Budget addresses still have some pomp and circumstance.
Not this year.
Governor JB Pritzker is moving forward with a combined State of the State and Budget address tomorrow, even though neither the House or Senate will be in session. He will give it virtually. We’re assuming that means a speech from the Blue Room at the Thompson Center, but we haven’t heard that for sure.
Pritzker’s administration sent budget “toplines” to friendly media (which didn’t include us for some reason…) and some lawmakers last week claiming the Governor won’t seek an income tax increase or draconian cuts that were the fear porn message of the Governor’s failed graduated income tax referendum last fall.
After passing a budget last May relying on tax increase revenue that never came and a federal bailout that still hasn’t come, the state found itself $5 billion in the hole. House Republicans slapped the Governor around yesterday, especially for his idea of closing certain unnamed tax loopholes.
“What the Democrats call ‘loopholes’, we look at those as tax increases,” House GOP Leader Jim Durkin (R-Western Springs) said. “We also believe that that is a disincentive for businesses to remain in Illinois, to grow and to keep employees employed and to bring in new people.”
Pritzker has repeatedly called out Republicans (who are in the super minority in both chambers, remember) for failing to introduce their own budget or laundry list of cuts that Democrats could use against them in a campaign.
Durkin says that’s not happening.
“We’re not going to propose a budget when we can’t get information on their cuts and propose something that’s going to be based on imaginary numbers, something that they’ve done quite well over the last two years,” Durkin said. “Until the governor can provide us with a list of his agency cuts, we’re not in a position to make recommendations. These are his agencies. He has said he would make tough decisions two years ago, but he still hasn’t done that.”
Durkin’s staff has sent me a couple of letters the GOP Leader has sent to Pritzker that they say have been unanswered.
The Governor’s address is noon Wednesday. We’ll post links on the website and our social media channels ahead of time. I’ll also try to post a quick reaction video, too.
MAYBE THEY CAN GET ALONG?
What do a Puerto Rican liberal from the northwest side of Chicago and a downstate conservative from the middle of nowhere have in common on policy?
Turns out, more than you would think.
We brought back our roundtable discussion yesterday with newly appointed Senators Cristina Pacione-Zayas (D-Chicago) and Sally Turner (R-Beason).
Obviously, they look at the world differently. My guess is that on the “big stuff,” they’re not going to be voting the same way.
I was encouraged, though, watching them both on my Zoom screen yesterday nodding at the things each other had to say.
For instance, who said this? The Chicago Democrat or the downstate Republican?
“[We should focus on] workforce and small businesses. Really fortifying our mom and pop shops and the economic heartbeat of our communities.”
If you guessed the downstate Republican, you’re wrong.
I found it to be a fascinating conversation. Here’s the link to our story and the video is embedded, too. Take the time to watch.
By the way, I have every reason to believe Sen. Turner will be a great public servant for her district, but keep your eye on Sen. Pacione-Zayas. I’m incredibly impressed. She’s young, smart, dynamic, and has a ton of potential. She’s going places.
FEWER FIRST DOSES AVAILABLE
The Illinois Department of Public Health buried a press release Saturday saying, without saying, but saying they will have fewer shots available as first doses of the COVID-19 vaccine to meet the demand for second doses.
Some counties have already screamed bloody murder about their number of doses being cut in recent weeks, and some counties not receiving new shipments at all.
“They limited the allocation we will receive so we have very limited first doses arriving for the next two weeks,” Lake County PHD Executive Director Mark Pfister told me.
While, on its face, this may appear like bad planning on the state side (especially knowing going in that everyone who gets a first dose will need a second dose), but Champaign-Urbana Public Health District Administrator Julie Pryde says the state is at the mercy of the federal government.
“Everything hinges upon how much the state receives,” she said.
As far as we know, the state is still planning to open up to the wider phase of 1B on the 25th, which includes hundreds of thousands, potentially, with major medical conditions while many vulnerable seniors still can’t get an appointment.
We. need. more. vaccine.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY
Former State Representative Don Moffitt and former State Senator Tony Munoz both celebrate on Thursday. They’re joined by former Governor Bruce Rauner, who turns 65.
BEFORE WE GO…
Be careful if you have to go out and about this morning. But, remember, you could be like my dog (who has an Instagram, don’t judge me) where things are all fun and games until you realize you have to do your business in snow up to your neck.
Have a great week.