FREE POST: THE ILLINOIZE: By the end of the day, 6 million Illinoisans will have voted...what will they say?...Is the top House race really in the southwest suburbs?
November 5, 2024
Happy Election Day, Illinois.
We finally made it.
We’re a little late today as I was waiting to hear from someone on one thing this morning and they never turned up. Shrugs.
Today’s post is free for everyone, but we certainly hope you’ll become a paid subscriber. It’s how we keep the lights on around here.
My friend Tom LoBianco and I did an Election Eve Cocktail Hour over on our Ground Game Podcast page. Go check it out if you’re looking for election content this morning. (Also, subscribe to the page while you’re there.)
There’s nothing on the Governor’s official schedule today. We’ve asked his campaign where he’ll be and they haven’t responded.
Polls are open. If you haven’t voted yet, bring your goulashes and get in line.
Let’s get to it.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
There are precious few races around the state to watch today (Thanks, Democrat gerrymandering!), but here’s a running list of top races around the state:
(* denotes incumbent)
Congressional:
17th District, Eric Sorensen* (D) vs. Joe McGraw (R)
New polling indicates Sorensen is in the driver’s seat heading into Election Day, but it certainly wouldn’t be a surprise. If I question the poll it’s that Sorensen is outpacing Vice President Harris in that district, and Sorensen underperformed Biden’s 2020 number when he was elected two years ago.
Senate:
40th District, Patrick Joyce* (D) vs. Phil Nagel (R)
The question may turn into whether Republicans regret their decision to pull out of this district with more than a month to go. Trump may overperform in the district, which may explain why Senate Democrats have continued to spend gobs of money. Joyce will win, but it may be a question of “what if?”
House:
45th District, Marti Deuter (D) vs. Dennis Reboletti (R)
This is a race to replace outgoing freshman Rep. Jenn Ladisch-Douglass (D-Elmhurst), who won by around 300 votes two years ago. Deuter, an Elmhurst City Council member, is perceived as the favorite, but Reboletti is a fixture in the area and could make this specifically close.
47th District, Amy Grant* (R) vs. Jackie Williamson (D)
Grant has long been on the minds of Democrats and they drew her into a district that went +12 for Biden in 2020. Williamson ran two years ago but didn’t get meaningful help from House Democrats. That’s not the case this time as they’re all in to flip this DuPage County seat.
52nd District, Martin McLaughlin* (R) vs. Maria Peterson (D)
McLaughlin’s far northwest suburban district was a Biden district in 2020 and Democrats have gone in bigtime to take him out in 2024. He hasn’t had financial support from House Republicans and Democrats have spent more than $800,000 on broadcast TV to take him out. McLaughlin was rated as our must vulnerable legislator in our final ratings.
76th District, Liz Bishop (R) vs. Amy Murri-Briel (D)
In this open seat, Democrats gerrymandered the seat being vacated by Rep. Lance Yednock (D-Ottawa) by adding the Northern Illinois University campus into the traditionally LaSalle County-based district. It’s one of the few districts the GOP is competing on cable TV and Republicans hope their moderate candidate, Bishop, can sneak out a win over the more progressive Murri-Briel.
79th District, Jackie Haas* (R) vs. Billy Morgan (D)
Democrats like the candidate, former Pat Quinn aide Billy Morgan, to make a run at Rep. Jackie Haas (R-Bourbonnais), but they haven’t spent the kind of money that makes them look serious. The GOP is supe confident they’ll keep this seat, but Morgan is hoping the pile of money Senate Democrats are spending on Joyce could help him overperform expectations.
97th District, Harry Benton* (D) vs. Gabby Shanahan (R)
If Republicans are ever going to get out of their superminority h#ll, they need to pick off a district or two like this one. (See more below.) Benton has stepped in it a couple of times over the last few weeks, but over $900k in Chicago broadcast TV for him is a tough hill to climb, but the GOP thinks Shanahan, their rockstar recruit this cycle, may be able to do it.
104th District, Brandun Schweizer* (R) vs. Jarrett Clem
Schweizer was appointed to replace former Rep. Mike Marron in a district that includes much of southwest Champaign, which has seriously trended Democrat in the last few years. Clem is a moderate union guy and has brought in a ton of cash. Both sides think it’s a toss up.
112th District, Katie Stuart* (D) vs. Jay Keeven
This race got a lot of publicity this spring as Democrats tried to stop candidate slating to keep Keeven off the ballot. It probably isn’t moving numbers now, but Keeven is working his tail off and the GOP has growing optimism here.
114th District, Kevin Schmidt* (R) vs. LaToya Greenwood
Schmidt upset Grenwood in the old East St. Louis-based district two years ago, but the remap is proving this ain’t the old Wyvetter Younge district. Even Democrats are starting to admit privately Greenwood is going to have a tough time taking this one back.
THE POTENTIAL GOP SHOCKER IN THE SOUTHWEST SUBURBS?
Rep. Harry Benton (D-Plainfield) has been pounding the pavement for years.
He ran for House in 2020, won in a 2022 remap, and is seeking his second term in 2024.
Knocking doors in Joliet Monday afternoon, Benton had a look of confidence.
“I’m proud of everyone that’s worked for me and volunteered for me,” Benton said, reflecting on the campaign. “We’ve put it all out on the line and we’re going to see what ends up happening.”
Benton says the district relates to his moderate style of legislating.
“That’s who I am,” Benton said. “I’m a moderate Democrat and I couldn’t care less about the politics. I never wanted to get into politics. There were enough people that pissed me off that forced me to get into politics. I think a lot of people feel that way.”
His opponent, Republican Gabby Shanahan, spent Monday knocking on doors in Plainfield in the last push before polls opened Tuesday morning.
“I’m feeling really good,” Shanahan said, smiling as she moved between houses. “It’s a good feeling going into the final stretch.”
Many Republicans privately believe Shanahan is the GOP’s best shot to pick up a Democratic-held seat this fall in a district that was previously represented by a Republican (Mark Batinick) and Benton only won by around 1,000 votes over a less funded candidate two years ago.
But Shanahan says she doesn’t look at the task with any additional pressure.
“I’m focused on myself,” she said. “This district is a working class district with families and that’s what my husband and I embody. So, we’re just trying to get our message to resonate with them.”
Benton has been criticized by the GOP and even some liberal media members for taking credit for eliminating the grocery tax, but he didn’t vote on the bill and for claiming credit for things in the budget that he voted against.
Shanahan says voters can’t trust Benton.
“When you have someone campaigning on eliminating the Grocery Tax and the gas tax and does a 180 by not voting on it, people realize that stuff. They’re sick of being lied to,” Shanahan said. “If you can be an authentic person, it really resonates with people.”
But Benton defends his record and rhetoric as being blown out of proportion.
“I have a reputation for being honest with people and being honest with the district,” he said. “It doesn’t really come up at the doors because people know me.”
While Republicans have invested in Shanahan, Democrats have flexed their cash muscles in the district, especially over the final two weeks. House Democrats spent more than $925,000 on Chicago broadcast TV for Benton in the final two weeks of the campaign.
“Despite what the ads and the mailers say, I’m not some crazy extremist,” Shanahan said.
Benton says he’s confident heading into the final day.
“I think it’s a tight district but we’ve done the work and we’re gonna be in a good spot tomorrow,” he said.